Currently, the Americans do not consider the situation in Lebanon a priority compared to other pressing issues in the region. This is exactly what U.S. circles have been warning Lebanese inquiries about regarding potential solutions to the Lebanese crisis. The Americans were primarily preparing for the upcoming electoral phase, becoming increasingly preoccupied in the last months of the presidential race, as is customary, shifting their focus away from foreign matters. The current administration's performance, particularly President Joe Biden's, poses initial challenges that cannot be resolved until the Democrats finalize their stance on his candidacy. The shooting incident involving Republican candidate Donald Trump has restructured the elections and their fate from a more critical perspective, prompting a reevaluation of all sensitive issues in light of his potential victory and its implications for the region's policies, which seem to acknowledge his rising chances of becoming the new president.
Those monitoring the Lebanese file in Washington insist on discussing a lost opportunity that Lebanon failed to capitalize on—not just in relation to the Gaza war but also concerning regional states reassessing their calculations based on the questions surrounding Trump's chances, especially given his reemergence in the electoral landscape. This echoes the phase of his election eight years ago and his relationships with the key players in the region. Gulf states and regional countries are taking this matter seriously, while Lebanon itself is approaching the U.S. presidential mandate without recognizing the significant changes that could accompany Trump's return, as reported by "Al-Akhbar."
The calculations begin with Iran, where Americans view the election of reformist candidate Masoud Bezhakian as a serious indicator, particularly following his initial acceptance as a candidate by the Guardian Council, especially after a phase of escalating military and political tensions in Iran that have gradually subsided. This shift has facilitated indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington at an acceptable pace, albeit in initial stages. The regional scene is also cautious in approaching solutions to the Gaza war and the Arab-Gulf relations with Israel.
The reading doesn't stop at regional countries but extends to France, where Washington seriously notes the diminishing French role, especially concerning Lebanon. In recent years, France has tried to play a role that Syria once undertook by intervening in Lebanese daily matters. However, following the European elections and its parliamentary elections, France finds itself in a different place. Its inability to form a government in the short term, coupled with the domestic electoral scene's repercussions, hampers its foreign activity after losing influence in Africa and currently in the Middle East. This situation constrains President Emmanuel Macron in the later years of his presidency, consequently limiting any effective intervention initiatives by France in the region.
Thus, the Lebanese scene is not expected to regain prominence regarding two issues: the situation of Hezbollah and the overall political environment. In the first aspect, there is an American reading concerning what Israel desires and what it will not accept regarding the current situation in southern Lebanon, even if the Gaza war comes to a halt. This point transcends Hezbollah's demands, linking a ceasefire in the south to a ceasefire in Gaza, as Israel's calculations regarding its long-term handling of the party are entirely different.
While the Biden administration has aligned itself with Israel in its conflict with Hezbollah, attempting to maintain indirect communication channels with Lebanon and Hezbollah, Trump's new team interprets Hezbollah's situation differently, particularly since the prospective administration does not view Amos Hochstein's involvement positively and will not take responsibility for the Lebanese file. Additionally, there is a noticeable American withdrawal in discussions about the war expanding into Lebanon and about intervening to stop it. This aspect increasingly occupies the Europeans, who are trying to curb military deterioration while preparing to extend the mandate for international forces operating in the south, a matter that directly concerns them.
Any halt to the downward trajectory and the sliding of the situation due to a calculated or uncalculated mistake might, in their view, introduce the presidential file into the equation, albeit the American perspective on the presidency is different; they have given the Lebanese a chance to find a solution that has fluctuated several times without arriving at a practical resolution, despite extensive external intervention by various delegations and the Quintet group, as well as domestic attempts. This relegates the file to a status of waiting, with some hoping—albeit without much justification—that it will be a primary discussion point on the table of the new president and his team, as communications are beginning to take shape in the months leading up to the American elections.
However, this is not the current reality; the practical approach must acknowledge that Lebanon is not a priority in Washington today. Therefore, one can foresee a prolonged waiting period. Regarding the state of war, there is another conversation regarding what Israel wants from Lebanon and, subsequently, from the new American administration, according to "Al-Akhbar."
