Several polls conducted by liberal groups in the United States have shown that former First Lady Michelle Obama is more capable than current Vice President Kamala Harris of defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election in November, should Joe Biden decide to step down following his disastrous performance in the first presidential debate, along with the increasing doubts about his cognitive and health capabilities.
A liberal group reported that it financed two polls over the past two weeks regarding Harris, which found her approval ratings to be somewhat positive. Although her support among independent voters was not strong, she garnered more significant backing from young, Black, and Latino voters who are not particularly favorable towards President Biden.
Media reports indicate that former First Lady Michelle Obama has significantly higher approval ratings than Harris. Some Republican members believe she still has the ability to enter the 2024 election to save the Democrats, despite her lack of expressed desire to run. Senator Ted Cruz (Republican from Texas) stated, "I believe Biden will be forced to step down... estimating that at about 80%." He added, "The alternative candidate will either be Michelle Obama or Kamala Harris. I anticipated they would replace Biden with Michelle Obama. And perhaps that is still the case."
Regarding the possibility of Harris being nominated, Trump's campaign has stated they are prepared for that scenario, but most analysts believe Michelle Obama could pose a threat to Trump should she choose to run, even though there are no indications that she will. However, if Harris receives the green light to run, Democrats will hold on to her, according to analyst Marc Thiessen in the Washington Post. He noted, "Harris will not stand aside and allow someone else to be the candidate; she will fight for it." He asserts it is implausible for Democrats to replace Harris, the Black Vice President, with a white male, which reveals much about the polarization and division affecting the Democratic camp.
Democrats have the opportunity to replace their current candidate before the party conference in August, as they ramp up calls for Biden to step down. Earlier, the Daily Mail reported that party leaders are seeking to pressure California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama to serve as substitutes for Biden.
Former President Barack Obama cannot run again as the constitution prevents him from doing so after serving two terms, but he can influence and advocate for other candidates such as Biden's Vice President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Wes Moore, the Governor of Maryland.
There are genuine concerns that Biden may refuse to step down, which could require intervention from prominent Democrats like Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer to persuade Biden to consider withdrawing in the coming days. Jill Biden is also seen as an obstacle since she insists that her husband runs in November despite the questions about his health.
The Democratic National Convention will take place in Chicago from August 19 to 22, where each state sends a designated number of delegates to the national conference. If Biden steps down, the party will need to hold a series of votes among the delegates, involving a significant battle for votes over several days.
A recent poll revealed that 71% of voters in swing states, those most likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election in November, agreed that Biden is "too old to be an effective president." Another new poll found that 76% of all voters have concerns about the president's cognitive and physical ability to serve a second term.