During these hours, the competition and exchange of signals regarding whether to shift towards a full-scale war or to maintain a war of attrition between Lebanon and Israel are intensifying feverishly. Naturally, the lingering question for most parties involved is: will the war in Lebanon, between Israel and Hezbollah, escalate, or will it remain under the current discipline threshold, without breaking what are referred to as the supposed rules of engagement, the boundaries and ranges of which are no longer clear? Everyone knows that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States is pivotal at this time, playing a crucial role in determining the direction and content of the next phase in the ongoing war in the region. Will it lead to escalation or will it remain contained and stagnant within certain limits?
Of course, it is not Netanyahu's words that provide the answer to whether the war will expand or not. It is rather the plans he brings with him, the calculations he makes and will make, the orientations, and the reality of the American decision at this juncture. Is there a tendency to allow him to proceed with the war as he and some politicians and extremist factions in Israel desire, or will the matter be left to diplomacy?
Netanyahu and his government face several uncomfortable options. The first is agreeing to a deal to end the war and negotiate a prisoner exchange, which Biden had previously proposed and Hamas agreed to. By doing this, Netanyahu could be unintentionally providing support to the Democrats in the current electoral campaign, paving the way for the potential collapse of his government due to its extremists, risking angering the Republicans. Alternatively, he could prolong the war as it stands pending Trump’s return, whose final stance on the war and its continuation remains unknown, as he has recently spoken about the necessity of ending the war and retrieving prisoners. Another option is to venture into a wide-reaching war without American backing or approval.
Since Netanyahu’s visit to the United States is pivotal and fundamental, Hezbollah seems to want to continue its game of intimidation, thrill, and threat, revealing, as Netanyahu heads towards America, a new video shot via advanced drones showcasing views from above the Israeli airbase at Ramat David. According to its military media, it claims the footage was taken hours before its release.
The party, as evident, aims to play on sacred symbols and engage the imagination of the supportive public following the news within this political propaganda operation accompanying the war. In Islamic and Arab heritage, the hoopoe carries significant and important symbolism, primarily linked to honesty, accuracy, and clarity of messages. It is well-known that the hoopoe is mentioned twice in the Quran, in Surah An-Naml, where the important role it played in delivering messages between Solomon and the Queen of Sheba is described. This implies that utilizing the symbol of the hoopoe is a symbolism well-mastered by the party in its mobilization and pressure efforts to gain support among the public and elite.
In contrast, Israel is preparing to achieve its interests and objectives. If Netanyahu stated in his speech before Congress that he prefers diplomatic avenues, this does not mean he is revealing his true intentions. His words in Washington could be merely part of what he wishes to announce, in preparation for something else. What Netanyahu also conveyed is part of a promotional and marketing media process intended to achieve certain ends, notably striking the results reached by the International Criminal Court regarding Israel’s condemnation of its decisions and approaches, as well as focusing on Iran and its proxies’ strategies in the region.
Thus, Netanyahu's speech reveals only a small fraction of the Israeli government's orientations. The final decisions and directions will become apparent after the visit, serving the interests of both America and Israel. For these reasons, Hezbollah's message was timely, coinciding with Netanyahu's arrival in Washington, which seems intentional. This indicates that the party wants to engage in the game of tension and pressure, just as Israel engages in the same game towards it and Iran behind it.
Some believe that the bombing of the port of Hudaydah in Yemen by Israeli aircraft serves as a message from the US and Israel to Iran, rather than to any other party, indicating that whoever reaches Hudaydah is capable of reaching Tehran. Especially considering that the bombing of Hudaydah would not have occurred without an agreement and support for Israeli aircraft through refueling and the use of F-35 fifth-generation planes, after receiving assistance from Italy and America at various levels.
In the stories of the Arab and Islamic popular imagination about the hoopoe and the crow, a dispute arose between them over a drinking and washing water pool, each claiming ownership. After quarreling, they referred the matter to a water judge. Following lengthy arguments and both failing to provide evidence of ownership of the pool, the water judge ruled in favor of the hoopoe, reasoning that experience had proven the hoopoe to be honest and loyal throughout its life, thereby winning the judge's bet.
One wonders to whom the American water judge will rule this time: the hoopoe that flew over Haifa and its bases, or the crow that reached America and began to navigate between its quarters?
