The entire region found itself yesterday in a "major war flashpoint," one that no one wishes for, but where everyone may find themselves caught in miscalculations or misjudgments in the context of a decisive response. All indicators have shown that this response is simply waiting for a "timing schedule," following an attack on the Syrian Golan Heights, which Tel Aviv accused Hezbollah of causing, a claim echoed by Washington in a similar gesture while urging Beirut to rein in the party and urging Israel not to turn its "right to defend its citizens" into a spark for a conflict that could ignite the "powder keg" in a region of hot plates, burning volcanoes, and dormant threats.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the region and global decision-making capitals did not "blink" after a rocket hit a football field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, killing 12 people, most of whom were children aged between 10 and 20 years, and injuring more than 20 others. Israel vowed that the "brutal attack would not go unanswered" and that "Hezbollah would pay a heavy price unlike any it has faced before," despite the party's swift denial of what it described as "false claims" regarding its responsibility for the attack.
"At all hours," "red phones" were operational among Israel, Iran, and Lebanon, with major Western countries and Arab nations, as well as the United Nations, trying to reconcile an Israeli decision for an "out-of-the-norm" strike that aligns with the tragic toll of Majdal Shams—considered by Tel Aviv as crossing the "red line"—while ensuring the response does not go "off script," which has been developing since October 8 as part of the ongoing "fire diaries" on the southern front, under evolving rules of engagement that have yet to exceed unstated limitations adhered to by both parties uninterested in sliding into a war defined by "kill or be killed."
Beirut felt like a "city with lights out" since the Saturday of Majdal Shams, "on edge" as it counted Israeli threats, international warnings about the dangers of escalation and the potential for a full-scale war, alongside urgent demands from foreign embassies for their nationals to avoid traveling to Israel and Lebanon (as did France) or to leave (Norway) or to stay at their own risk (Denmark). Meanwhile, as Israel saw the "emergency" return of Benjamin Netanyahu from Washington, it held consecutive meetings, with announcements indicating that the Defense Minister and Chief of Staff "approved operational plans on the Lebanese front," and the Knesset's National Security Committee calling for the opening of shelters in the north.
Despite reports from diplomatic sources in Washington and Beirut stating that "the Israeli strike on Lebanon is assured, and work is ongoing to keep it limited in size and place to avoid large cities where the population is dense, including Beirut, so as not to provoke Hezbollah into a large response," other predictions prevailed that "the Israeli response may be larger than expected," following the announcement by Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi from Majdal Shams of "entering the next phase of war in the north" and that his forces "have raised their readiness to the next stage of fighting on this front."
Multiple hotlines carried efforts to define a framework for a "measured response" that would not be akin to "treading on a mine," perilous for the entire region, amidst information that "Hezbollah," which has its "finger on the trigger," had indicated to "those concerned" that any strike outside the designated engagement borders would be met with an immediate response, parallel to an Iranian message to the United States that "any Israeli aggression against Lebanon will be considered an American war on Iran" and that the latter "would not be left alone."
While sources indicated that there were communications, through mediators, between Tehran and Washington, which confirmed no intention to escalate the situation into a broad war in the region, a European official revealed that several countries "are advocating with Israel not to expand its response beyond Hezbollah, particularly since the Lebanese government condemned the incidents." He anticipated that "Tel Aviv will soon execute targeted and decisive strikes against Hezbollah leadership and locations, perhaps also targeting Iranian leaders or interests," emphasizing that "communication continues to avoid sliding into a worse scenario, but Netanyahu, who has received renewed American backing, may risk crossing red lines."
As preparations for the response were underway, setting potential boundaries against the backdrop of slim chances of a regional plunge into grand war, no one could assert with certainty what the next step could be following Tel Aviv's "retaliation strike," or whether the Majdal Shams incident could serve as the "pretext" it has been waiting for to engage in "combat days" or a "smart war" focusing on "Hezbollah" and its infrastructure throughout Lebanon in an attempt to lure security arrangements for the northern front and break the "tight linkage" between it and Gaza, something Hezbollah is preparing for and will meet with an appropriate response.
The phase "before the response" saw a frenetic race between "diplomacy through phone calls and statements" and measures taken in anticipation of what was to come, alongside leaks from Tel Aviv regarding "the limits of the strike," as follows:
- The announcement by Middle East Airlines - Lebanese Airlines delaying the return of some of its flights from European and Gulf destinations to Beirut from last night to this morning, without specifying reasons. It’s known that this measure was linked to the expected response from Israel and measures taken to avoid it. Mohamed El-Hout, the chairman of "Middle East Airlines," confirmed that the flight delays were due to preferring not to have many planes at the airport simultaneously, adding that "this step is a matter of distributing insurance risks," while clarifying that "there’s no information indicating an airport strike, nor any fear of that."
- The Israeli army announced it had prepared potential scenarios for an attack on Lebanon, presenting them to political leadership, and Israeli Channel 12 reported that "there are estimates that Israel will respond forcefully to Hezbollah but in a manner that does not lead to comprehensive war," while the Israeli army radio stated that Tel Aviv "is not interested in a comprehensive war with Hezbollah, but rather in striking a painful blow to it only."
- Iran's public entry into the escalation atmosphere, attempting to establish a "deterrent equation" in the name of the "united resistance axis," was marked by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani warning Israel of any new military adventures in Lebanon that could lead to unforeseen ramifications, considering that any such step reflects "Israeli ignorance" that could widen instability and lead to security disruptions and war in the region and "Israel will bear the responsibility for the unforeseen consequences and reactions to such a foolish act."
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated he did not wish to see an escalation in the conflict, revealing "that Washington is holding discussions with Israel regarding the Golan attack," adding "all indicators suggest the missile was indeed from Hezbollah, and Washington supports Israel's right to defend its citizens." This was preceded by the White House reaffirming its support for Israel "in the wake of the Majdal Shams attack," emphasizing that "Washington’s support for Israel's security is solid and unwavering against all Iranian-backed groups, including the Lebanese Hezbollah," stressing that "this matter is of absolute priority." Simultaneously, it was reported from a source that "U.S. intelligence officials have no doubt that Hezbollah executed the attack on the Golan Heights, but it was unclear if the terrorist group targeted the objective deliberately or made a mistake."
- The Egyptian Foreign Ministry warned of "a new war front" following the Majdal Shams strike, highlighting "the importance of supporting Lebanon and keeping it safe from the horrors of war."
- Britain condemned the attack, expressing "concern about the risk of further escalation in the region," while France denounced the strike, calling for avoiding "new military escalation."
- The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, and the head of the UNIFIL mission, General Aroldo Latharo, urged "the utmost restraint along the Lebanese-Israeli border," jointly stating, "We condemn the killing of civilians, including young children and teenagers in Majdal Shams. Civilians must be protected at all times."
Israel intensified its threats against Hezbollah, revealing that the missile that hit Majdal Shams "was of the Falak 1 type, carrying a warhead weighing 53 kilograms, and was launched from Shebaa." Netanyahu vowed in a statement from his office that "Israel will not let this brutal attack go unanswered, and Hezbollah will pay a heavy price unlike any it has faced before." Defense Minister Yoav Galant confirmed from Majdal Shams that he had ordered a response and that "Hezbollah is responsible for this strike and will pay the price."
Ahead of the small government meeting last night, media reported that National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir would demand a large-scale attack on Lebanon, considering that accepting a settlement with "Hezbollah" would strengthen its power. Meanwhile, Western reports indicated that "Hezbollah has evacuated some of its positions in eastern and southern Lebanon in anticipation of an Israeli response," and sources from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that "Iranian and Hezbollah-affiliated groups of both Syrian and non-Syrian nationalities evacuated their points in southern Damascus in anticipation of Israeli strikes." Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib underscored that "any war on Lebanon will turn into a regional war and will be destructive for everyone, not just Lebanon as some believe," dismissing the idea that Hezbollah executed the attack on Majdal Shams since it has targeted only military sites throughout the conflict in the south, and predicting that the attack may have resulted from other organizations or could be an Israeli error or a mistake by Hezbollah, urging an international investigation or a tripartite committee meeting through UNIFIL to ascertain the truth.
Amidst revelations that the United States requested Lebanon to rein in Hezbollah, political circles took note of a statement issued by the Lebanese government on Saturday night condemning all acts of violence and assaults against all civilians and calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, emphasizing that "attacking civilians is a blatant violation of international law and contradicts humanitarian principles." This statement was seen as reflective of the urgency of the moment, given the communications received by the government, suggesting that Lebanon stands on the brink of a large-scale war while attempting to steer the country away from it without "lifting the cover" from Hezbollah amidst reports that Lebanese officials' phones have not ceased ringing, with "on the other side" of one call being U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, who communicated with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt warning of the perilous situation.
The stance taken by Jumblatt regarding "the tragic incident affecting the town of Majdal Shams" was not incidental, as he described Israel's claim that the resistance launched the missile as "lies," affirming "that targeting civilians is unacceptable and condemned, whether in Palestine, the occupied Golan, or southern Lebanon, and the history and present of the Israeli enemy are filled with massacres it has committed and continues to commit against civilians without relent." He cautioned "everyone in Lebanon, Palestine, and the Golan against any slipping or incitement within the context of the enemy's destructive project, stressing that what is required is to prevent the war from expanding and an immediate cessation of aggression and fire." He noted that U.S. envoy Hochstein "said Israel would conduct a wide operation, reminding him that he is a mediator and not a transmitter of Israeli threats." He added, "In light of Hezbollah's statement denying any relation of the Islamic Resistance to what happened in Majdal Shams, we emphasize the warning and alert against what the Israeli enemy has been planning for some time to ignite strife and fragment the region and target its components. This project has been thwarted in the past, and as it reveals itself again, we are prepared to counter it alongside the resistance and all the resistors confronting Israeli crime and occupation."
