In light of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the "Hamas" political bureau in Tehran, and the strike directed by Israel at "Hezbollah" in the southern suburb of Beirut, where it assassinated Fouad Shukr, a prominent leader in the party, it has become clear that the Israeli state has decided to escalate the confrontation. Israel has chosen to expand the Gaza war, a move that Iran had threatened. It will not be satisfied with wars against the Iranian regime's proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, but will engage in confrontation with Iran itself. The turning point was the drone that the Houthis launched which exploded in Tel Aviv. The Israeli message, through the assassination of Haniyeh, is very clear. The essence of the message is that everything has become permissible as long as the Iranian decision is to strike Tel Aviv. If the "Islamic Republic" is willing to take its challenge to a point where the very existence of Israel is at stake, Israel does not rule out resorting to the nuclear weapon it possesses, especially since the issue is a matter of life or death for it... and given that Iran is working to obtain the atomic bomb.
In light of these facts, the question regarding Lebanon is exceedingly simple, yet extremely dangerous at the same time: How can a country like Lebanon tie its fate to that of Gaza, especially after Israel has effectively erased it from existence? How can Lebanon's fate be decided in Gaza, which launched Hamas' attack on Israel without any political agenda or vision for the day after the attack?
The party that has linked Lebanon's fate to that of Gaza, which has expanded to Iran, must lack the language of logic. It is devoid of any thought for the future of the Lebanese people. Such a party must be indifferent to the fate of Lebanon and the Lebanese. There is no logic of any kind to resort to regarding "supporting Gaza" from southern Lebanon, except for the logic of the absence of a cohesive Lebanese front that tells the "Islamic Republic" in Iran that all wars waged in the region alongside the Gaza war serve Israel's interests. Thanks to these wars, Israel perpetrates heinous acts against defenseless Palestinians in light of the attack of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" launched by Hamas targeting settlements established in what is called the Gaza envelope.
In the absence of such a cohesive domestic front defending Lebanon and explicitly condemning Hezbollah's missile launch from Lebanese territory that killed children and teenagers in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, it seems normal for a Lebanese foreign minister to utter statements that are both laughable and tragic. This is the statement made by Foreign Minister Abdullah Bouhabib, who calls on Israel to adhere to Resolution 1701 issued by the Security Council during this time in 2006. Bouhabib ignores the fact that Hezbollah has always rejected this resolution, which Israel has never rigorously respected. Hezbollah has refused to comply with the terms of the resolution since the very first day it was issued, taking from the resolution what it wanted, namely a ceasefire with Israel. It then worked to strengthen its presence in the area of operations of the UN forces in southern Lebanon. In fact, under Resolution 1701, which allowed the Lebanese army to return to the south after a long absence, Hezbollah is not entitled to maintain any armed presence in the UN forces' operational area.
The problem is that the powerless Lebanese government does not even recognize the importance of silence and refraining from making statements regarding 1701, statements that are disconnected from logic and reality. The most alarming aspect is that Iranian calculations do not necessarily align with Israeli calculations with respect to Lebanon, especially after the outbreak of the Gaza War. Lebanon will pay dearly for tying itself to Gaza's fate, which is becoming inevitable. At the very least, it can be said that Lebanon has become threatened with destruction after it decided to open a southern front without understanding the implications of such a decision. There is a lack of Lebanese awareness regarding the meaning of making nonsensical statements about returning to the armistice agreement signed between Lebanon and Israel in 1949. This is just a form of cleverness, nothing more. How can one return to the armistice agreement after Lebanon has caused its final breach by signing the Cairo Agreement in 1969?
It appears that the only logic that can be understood through the crime of tying Lebanon's fate to that of Gaza, a fate that is becoming increasingly clear, is Iranian logic. Where is Iran's problem if Lebanon remains or ceases to exist? Iran's problem lies elsewhere, namely in obtaining American or Israeli recognition of its right to participate in any conference that takes place after the end of the Gaza War.
In clearer terms, the "Islamic Republic" wants to sit at the negotiating table after the Gaza War to participate in determining the fate of the region and how to reshape it. It seeks this regardless of whether Lebanon remains or not, as long as there is no one defending the country... but there is a caretaker government where each minister operates according to his own agenda, an agenda that bears no relation to Lebanon's interests either closely or remotely.
The dangerous consequences of Israel expanding the Gaza war to include Iran, which has raised the sword of its capability to expand the war or not, are being set in motion. Those who decided to expand the war are the Israelis. The unfortunate reality is that Lebanon, which has tied its fate to the Gaza War, will pay a heavy price due to this decision.
