Political science professor Khaled Al-Ardawi commented today, Wednesday, on the possibility of Iraq playing a role in reducing tensions between Iran on one side and the U.S. and Israel on the other. Al-Ardawi stated that "Baghdad could be a good mediator in addressing many crises in the Middle East," but added that "this requires it to earn the trust of all parties, including Washington and Tel Aviv. It cannot gain this trust and play a neutral and positive mediating role unless it stays clear of bias and alignments in favor of one party at the expense of another."
He noted that "Baghdad's alignment weakens its negotiating power, making it a questionable mediator. It also cannot play this role if it does not possess its political and security decision-making power on its territory." He indicated that "the division of political and security decisions in Iraq, alongside the existence of armed groups that operate above the law and do not obey the orders of the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, as well as siding with one regional or international party against another, makes Baghdad diplomatically weak and a rival to some at any political dialogue table. The result is its inability to play a regional and international mediating role in peace and stability in the Middle East."
The Middle East is currently in a state of cautious anticipation for an Iranian strike against Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh by a missile targeting his residence in the heart of the Iranian capital, Tehran. There are warnings regarding the potential consequences of this conflict on Iraq as the battle could escalate into a regional war involving the resistance axis, including Iraqi participation.
Iran accuses Israel of carrying out the attack, with senior officials, including Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, promising Israel "severe punishment." Meanwhile, Tel Aviv emphasizes that it will respond to any Iranian targeting, and its ally Washington asserts its support in the face of any threat. Observers believe that Iran has extended arms in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Therefore, even though the conflict is currently distant from Iraq, given the entrenched Iranian power centers in Iraq, any Iranian strike against Israel could provoke an Israeli attack on Iraq targeting the aforementioned Iranian centers.
On October 10, 2023, a knowledgeable government source revealed that U.S. President Joe Biden asked Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani to play a mediating role with Iran to contain any expansion of the fighting between Israel and Hamas, which attacked Israeli settlements in an operation dubbed "Al-Aqsa Flood." The source stated that "Biden valued Baghdad's official role in de-escalation during the current crisis and discussed the possibility of mediation to achieve calm." He added that "al-Sudani expressed his belief in the necessity of working towards containment and de-escalation, accompanied by a ceasefire and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to assist the people in Gaza."
