Lebanon

# Agreement to Avoid a Widespread War?

# Agreement to Avoid a Widespread War?

Informed sources have indicated to "Al-Anba" that an agreement to avoid a widespread war may have been reached, and a limited response from the resistance axis to Israel might replace it, possibly with no response at all. There are reports about separating the Lebanese file from the rest of the axis, along with increased confrontations along the border with Israel while adhering to the rules of engagement.

One element of the agreement reportedly pertains to oil facilities in Syria, with increased American pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza. In this context, a Western diplomatic source stated that Washington has made significant progress in bridging gaps in the ceasefire agreement regarding Gaza, which is seen as a gateway to defusing tensions in the region and establishing new frameworks for addressing the crisis, the future situation in Gaza, and the Palestinian cause.

Simultaneously, Lebanese authorities have increased communications, either by working to prevent war through limited diplomatic channels supporting the Lebanese position in compliance with Resolution 1701, or by preparing to face any repercussions of war if it occurs, including activating the emergency committee that was formed but has yet to take action. The responsibility has largely fallen on private institutions, which have remained prepared and bearing responsibility during the past 10 months of confrontations. Additionally, the Ministry of Health received supplies, including a shipment of medicines from the United Nations, in anticipation of any emergency.

In this regard, an opposing Beirut MP described the national emergency plan as "weak" and considered it insufficient to meet the challenges in the event of any significant Israeli aggression against Lebanon. He observed that the prepared plan requires financial support and external funding to meet needs for food security, shelters, and an increased fuel stock for bakeries, hospitals, and various sectors, in addition to the healthcare sector, which is already facing countless crises.

He revealed that the plan relies on criteria and assumptions drawn from the experience of the Israeli aggression against Lebanon in June 2006 and thus cannot meet the needs of people, as the political, economic, social, and living conditions differ significantly from the past marked by a presidential vacancy, a caretaker government boycotted by some ministers, financial instability, and international discontent with the Lebanese state's role in reform implementation across all fields.

The opposing MP confirmed that political and diplomatic efforts, both locally and internationally, are working diligently to prevent the outbreak of a widespread war between Israel and Hezbollah, represented in the government and the parliament. He highlighted the importance of local, Arab, and international communications in preventing Lebanon from sliding into the expected war, should the regional and international efforts fail to curb Israeli aggression in the south and halt the assault on Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories.

Politically, while discussions regarding the presidential issue have been absent since the assassination of Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shkir, this topic has resurfaced following the Maronite Council's monthly meeting in Diman, where they called for an open session to elect a president. In this context, a source close to the "duo" told "Al-Anba" that the matter lies elsewhere and that a solution cannot be achieved in a session with any party lacking the ability to gather 65 MPs, the required number for the second round of voting (and beyond the first round) to elect a president. In fact, the opposition, which secured 59 votes for its candidate Jihad Azour in the last session on July 14, 2023, has seen a decline in support due to the withdrawal of multiple blocs and independent deputies.

He added that if any party could not change the positions of independent or hesitant MPs over the past year despite all the initiatives proposed and efforts made, it is unrealistic to expect these positions to change within an hour between voting rounds. Therefore, it is necessary to sit at the table and reach an agreement, as any other discussion will not bring us closer to electing a president and could instead lead to further division in a country already burdened with complex crises.

On the ground, as confrontations continue along the southern borders at a steady pace, Israel has recently resorted to its aircraft breaking the sound barrier over the capital Beirut almost daily, a procedure that had previously been limited to the southern regions and their surroundings, aimed at creating fear among civilians and signaling that its aircraft are capable of operating anywhere in Lebanese airspace whenever they choose.

The Public Health Emergency Operations Center, under the Ministry of Public Health, announced that an Israeli attack via drone on the town of Yarin resulted, in initial assessments, in three injuries, according to "Al-Anba" Kuwait.

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