The race to succeed United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has become clearer following the second round of secret indicative voting within the Security Council. Guyana's candidate, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, leads, with Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan trailing closely behind.
This development comes amid growing anticipation of the possibility of a woman reaching the top of the global body for the first time, contingent upon the positions of the five permanent members and their veto power, according to Reuters.
Second Round Lead
The Security Council held its second non-binding straw poll on Friday, August 21, to assess the candidates' prospects to succeed Guterres, whose second term ends in 2026.
The Council, comprising 15 members, votes behind closed doors, choosing between "encourage," "discourage," and "no opinion."
According to diplomats speaking to "The National," Rodrigues-Birkett garnered 8 "encourage" votes, topping the second round. Grynspan, who led the first round, and International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi each received 7 "encourage" votes.
Details reported in "El País" indicated that Rodrigues-Birkett also received 3 "discourage" votes, compared to 4 negative votes for Grynspan, leading to an exchange in lead between the candidates over the rounds.
Grynspan had led the first round on July 30, ahead of Rodrigues-Birkett and Grossi.
Female Representation
The number of candidates rose to eight following the entry of Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne A-Baki, sponsored by Tonga, on August 17.
The current list includes Rodrigues-Birkett, Grynspan, Grossi, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister María Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, and A-Baki.
The list comprises five women and three men, potentially leading to the selection of the first female UN Secretary-General, supported by various states and civil organizations.
Ivonne A-Baki: A Candidate with Lebanese Roots
A-Baki joined the race late and did not participate in the first indicative vote. The UN and Reuters reported her official nomination by Tonga on August 17, making her the eighth candidate.
A-Baki, an Ecuadorian diplomat, was born to Lebanese migrant parents and lived through Lebanon's civil war from 1975 to 1990. She has held several governmental and diplomatic roles, including Minister in Ecuador and ambassador to the US, France, and Qatar.
In an informal dialogue with member states and civil society on Thursday, A-Baki highlighted her experiences during the Lebanese war, pledging her life to peace.
Should she be elected, she promised to focus on preemptive conflict prevention and fieldwork in regions of tension and conflict, alongside advocating for UN reforms and a more geopolitically representative Security Council.
Despite her late entry, she received no "encourage" votes and faced 8 "discourage" votes in the second round, with "El País" noting 7 abstentions.
A-Baki previously mentioned to an Ecuadorian radio station that her candidacy enjoys US support, though Washington has not officially commented.
Increasing Odds
The voting trend thus far indicates strong female contenders, with Grynspan leading the first round and Rodrigues-Birkett taking the lead in the second. Both candidates represent the Latin America and Caribbean region, perceived as preferred in this geographical rotation.
Should either Grynspan or Rodrigues-Birkett win, it would mark the first time a woman occupies the UN's top post since its inception in 1945.
Grossi's Decline
Grossi maintained a strong position in the second round with 7 "encourage" votes but couldn't surpass the leading female candidates. "El País" noted that he remained third in both rounds, despite being a prominent contender in earlier stages.
Diplomats and analysts believe the race remains open, as the five permanent members have not clearly indicated their preferences, and new candidates may still emerge.
Russian UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia acknowledged the possibility of new candidates if current ones don't progress significantly.
Choosing a Secretary-General
The UN Charter mandates the Secretary-General's appointment by the General Assembly, based on the Security Council's recommendation. Practically, a candidate needs at least 9 of 15 Council votes, with no permanent member vetoes. The recommendation then goes to the 193-member General Assembly for approval.
Indicative voting has long gauged candidates' chances before advancing to the critical selection phase, with no official records kept, as voting papers are destroyed after each round.
Process Transparency
The race coincides with debates on the transparency of the Secretary-General selection process. General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock has pushed for more openness and inclusive procedures, including public dialogues with candidates and opportunities for member states and civil society to engage with their platforms.
These efforts have drawn criticism from the US and Russia, who claim Baerbock exceeds the General Assembly's role in a process primarily led by Security Council members.
Mounting Pressures
The succession race unfolds amid financial and political pressures for the UN, amid challenges from wars and global rifts. The General Assembly's presidency notes unprecedented financial and political strains on the organization, while the UN80 Reform Program seeks efficiency and effectiveness improvements.
The UN faces fiscal pressure from the Trump administration, with the US pledging $725 million to settle UN arrears, contingent upon reforms and cost reductions.