Two Turkish officials stated that their country is preparing for the possibility of launching a new military operation against a U.S.-backed Kurdish group in northern Syria if talks with the United States and Russia regarding the matter fail. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mentioned this week that Ankara is determined to eliminate threats emerging from northern Syria, describing an attack by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) that resulted in the deaths of Turkish policemen as "the straw that broke the camel's back."
Turkey reported that police in the Syrian region of Azaz were attacked by a guided missile from Tel Rifaat by the YPG, which Ankara classifies as a terrorist group closely linked to militants waging a decades-long insurgency in southeastern Turkey. A senior official told Reuters, "It is essential to cleanse the areas (in northern Syria), especially the Tel Rifaat region from which attacks against us are continuously launched."
In the past five years, Turkish forces have conducted three incursions into Syrian territory, seizing control of hundreds of kilometers along the border and advancing about 30 kilometers into northern Syria. Russian fighters, Iranian-backed militants, Turkish-backed armed groups, Islamist extremists, U.S. troops, and Syrian government forces are all active in various regions of northern Syria, in addition to the YPG.
The United States considers the YPG a key ally in the fight against the Islamic State in northeastern Syria, while Russia has forces in the region to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Timing Uncertain
It is unclear when and what nature any new Turkish military action will take. The official noted that the army and the National Intelligence Agency are making preparations. He continued, "The decision has been made, and necessary coordination will take place with specific countries. The matter will be discussed with Russia and the United States."
The officials stated that Erdoğan will address the issue with U.S. President Joe Biden during the G20 summit of major world economies in Rome at the end of October. A third official stressed the need to push the YPG back at least 30 kilometers, noting that Russia fully controls the areas from which the recent attacks were launched, alongside some Iranian elements. He added that Erdoğan would talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin following discussions with Biden.
Referring to the political wing of the YPG, the official stated, "If there is no outcome from diplomacy and the PYD (Democratic Union Party) does not leave these areas, the operation seems inevitable." This referred to Tel Rifaat and "several other locations."
On Monday, Turkey reported that shells believed to have been fired from a YPG-controlled area east of Tel Rifaat landed in the Turkish town of Karkamış across the border from Jarablus in Syria, causing minor damage. Armed groups backed by Turkey have controlled Azaz and Jarablus since Turkey's first incursion in 2016, which aimed to push both the Islamic State and the YPG away from the border. Since then, Turkey has conducted two other military operations in Syria against the YPG, targeting one in the Afrin region in northwestern Syria and another further east.
