Under the title "Optimistic Predictions from Fitch for Egypt's Economy... Is It Achieving Growth Leadership Post-Corona?", the Al Arabiya website reported on the prediction from Fitch Ratings that the Egyptian economy could become one of the few economies globally to experience positive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. The agency confirmed that the Egyptian economy is recovering and will return to its pre-pandemic growth levels.
The country risk research division of the global agency predicted, during a remote seminar reviewing macroeconomic updates for the Middle East and North Africa region, that Egypt's real GDP growth would recover to 5% during the fiscal year 2021/2022, thus topping the list of countries that have achieved recovery to pre-pandemic levels in the region.
The agency noted that the Egyptian economy continues to maintain positive GDP growth despite the pandemic's repercussions and the negative impacts it has had on all economies, supported by increased government spending during the pandemic period.
It further explained that the recovery of the tourism sector, following strong government support, and the expansion in natural gas production, which is expected to rise this year, have both contributed to driving the country towards achieving growth. This is in addition to revenues from the Suez Canal and measures taken by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Egypt through cutting the interest rate by 350 basis points during the pandemic.
A few days ago, Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait stated that the Egyptian government aims to achieve a growth rate of 5.4% in the upcoming fiscal year 2021/2022, compared to the expected rate of 2.8% for the current fiscal year. He explained that flexible policies contributed to achieving a real positive growth rate of 3.6% during the last fiscal year, noting that the government has established a robust framework to handle emergency conditions and the repercussions of the coronavirus.
Maait predicted that the overall budget deficit would decrease to 7.7% in the current fiscal year from 7.9% in 2019-2020, and would reach 6.6% in 2021-2022. The Egyptian minister pointed out that the government allocated an economic stimulus package worth 100 billion Egyptian pounds, benefiting several sectors including industry, tourism, health, and exports, among others, emphasizing that all health sector needs have been met and healthcare services prioritized.
