On Tuesday, China announced that its population reached 1.411 billion last summer, according to the results of the population census conducted by the world's largest country every ten years. The National Bureau of Statistics informed the media that China's population increased by 72 million compared to the last census conducted in 2010, marking a population growth rate of 5.38% over the decade. The results of this census were expected to be published at the beginning of April, but they were delayed for several weeks, sparking speculation that the numbers would embarrass the communist regime. In late April, the government denied media reports suggesting that China was on the verge of announcing its first population decline since the Great Famine that struck the country in the late 1950s, which resulted in the deaths of tens of millions.
China had previously expected its population growth curve to peak in 2027 when it will be surpassed by India as the most populous country in the world; after that, China's population is projected to decline to 1.32 billion by 2050. The ten-year census concluded last December with the help of seven million volunteers who traveled from house to house across the country. Therefore, its results are considered more reliable than annual demographic investigations based on estimates.
The birth rate has been continuously declining since 2017, despite the government's easing of the one-child policy last year, allowing families to have two children. In 2019, the birth rate decreased to 10.48 per thousand people, the lowest level since the establishment of communist China in 1949. Generally, Chinese citizens are still required to have a maximum of two children, and some voices are calling for the abolition of this limit to encourage births. The decline in the birth rate is attributed to several factors, including a decrease in marriages, the cost of housing and raising children, and women delaying childbirth to prioritize their careers.
Demographic experts have warned that the country could follow a path similar to that of Japan or South Korea, with a declining population where the number of elderly surpasses that of young people and those of working age. In March, Parliament approved a plan to gradually raise the retirement age over the next five years, which provoked criticism from part of the public opinion.
