Hezbollah has not yet announced a clear position regarding the upcoming presidential election. Apart from gathering Gibran Bassil and Suleiman Frangieh for a breakfast meeting, Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, remains silent about his presidential choice, contrary to what happened before the election of President Michel Aoun. While many believe that the party's support for Frangieh is inevitable, given the significant difficulty in bringing Bassil to power, there are also many, both within Hezbollah's allied factions and those further away, who find it challenging to bring Frangieh to power. This could lead the party to search for a middle ground candidate that is acceptable to most blocs.
This raises a question that may be premature to answer: What if Hezbollah abandons Frangieh? How will his final reaction be? Will he "swallow it" as he did in 2016, or will he resist this time?
It is certain that Frangieh will find himself faced with two difficult options. If he resists, he will gain nothing, as he belongs to a clear political "line" with no alternative. If he "swallows it" a second, or perhaps a third time, it will make it easier to exclude him a fourth and fifth time, especially since no one knows what the presidential preferences will be in six years.
Undoubtedly, the opening move in the presidential race comes from Hezbollah. The question remains: Will they support Frangieh, or will they abandon him under the pretext of the difficulty of bringing him to power?
