New climate commitments from countries have led to a marginal improvement in humanity's chances of slowing down global warming, according to the United Nations, which expressed regret on Tuesday and called for raising ambitions by the end of the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) on climate. Before and during the Glasgow climate conference that began on October 31, around thirty countries presented new commitments, both short-term and long-term, notably Brazil and India, which pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070. These commitments have been deemed significant by observers.
However, Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme, said on Tuesday, "When we look at these new commitments, frankly, we see a mountain that has birthed a mouse." The annual benchmark report from the UN Environment Programme, published ahead of the 26th COP, predicted "catastrophic" warming that would raise temperatures by +2.7 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times; or +2.2 degrees Celsius when accounting for mid-century carbon neutrality promises. Yet, the updated forecasts released on Tuesday by the UN Environment Programme, assessing greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for about 150 countries by 2030, did not show any real change.
The promised commitments by 2030 announced over the past two weeks would represent 0.5 gigatonnes less in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 2030, but an additional 27 gigatonnes would need to be reduced to limit warming to +1.5 degrees Celsius, which is the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement. As a result, the revised 2030 targets do not lead to any change in the temperature trajectory, which is projected to rise by +2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to the UN Environment Programme.
Considering the net-zero carbon promises made by over 70 countries representing three-quarters of global emissions, a slight improvement is shown: +2.1 degrees Celsius compared to +2.2 degrees Celsius. However, these promises, as noted by Inger Andersen, are "generally vague and opaque, with some referring to greenhouse gases and others to carbon dioxide only, making them difficult to evaluate, and many defer the efforts until after 2030," whereas a 45% reduction in emissions is required by that date in hopes of keeping the increase at +1.5 degrees Celsius.
Other estimates for temperature projections were released in recent days. The most optimistic was issued by the International Energy Agency, which hopes to limit warming to +1.8 degrees Celsius if all short-term promises and carbon neutrality are honored. However, it aggregates commitments from one hundred countries to reduce methane gas emissions, a potent greenhouse gas, by 30% by 2030, while the UN Environment Programme does not take such announced commitments into account, which may "overlap" with national commitments.
Another analysis by a climate action tracking organization published on Tuesday predicts an increase of +2.4 degrees Celsius based on short-term targets. However, most of the recent estimates are based on a 50% likelihood of staying below a certain threshold, while the UN Environment Programme talks about a 66% chance, much like UN climate experts.
COP26 President Alok Sharma commented on Tuesday that all these assessments "show that there has been progress, but obviously it is not enough," and he wants to be able to say "credibly" at the end of this conference that the +1.5-degree Celsius goal is still "alive." In any case, none of these projections will be achieved without implementing policies on the ground. As Inger Andersen stated, real actions require real leadership. She added, "We hope that heads of state, leaders, ministers, and everyone can bridge this leadership gap before the conclusion of the Conference of the Parties."
