Tomorrow, we may head towards parliamentary consultations for the first time in a long while, but we remain unaware of who will be tasked with forming the government as a result. The competition is fierce and limited to two names: Najib Mikati and Nawaf Salam. Mikati's name has never been mentioned without him becoming a designated prime minister. Yet, he has never been officially tasked with forming a government after declining in the past. Mikati's reputation is as long as his stature. The name of the second candidate has been suggested multiple times without any "bite" regarding the formation taking place. In fact, he has hinted that he does not desire the position, a sign of high-mindedness that some interpret as ingratitude.
This explains the criticisms we hear from the Lebanese Forces regarding Nawaf Salam. The position of Mikataab, which will be decided after a lengthy meeting today, will serve as a "balancing act" in favor of one of the names.
However, it cannot be denied that Nawaf Salam is an unknown figure regarding how he would form the government, his positions, and his agenda. We certainly cannot assess his chances of success or where he wants to take the country. Thus, the naming of either Mikati or Salam, for the Lebanese Forces, has become a detail. The inevitable outcome is that President Michel Aoun will not sign the decree to form the government, as he rejects both Mikati and Salam.
We thus seem headed toward a long period of caretaker governance, extending until at least next November, after the election of a new president. This option does not disturb Mikati, who prefers his government to remain as is with minor adjustments, ensuring that all its members stay in place.
On the other hand, the president, along with the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, will be prisoners of their stances, as their relationship with Mikati has been shattered, and there is no connection whatsoever with Salam who is rejected by Hezbollah. Aoun's term will thus end without a legitimate government. Whoever is tasked will repeatedly ascend to Baabda with formation proposals in hand, without obtaining the president’s signature on them.
It’s like a film we've seen time and again: stubbornness, spite, and bargaining. This is happening while we are in a country that is completely collapsing. It sounds as if we are hearing multiple voices saying: if the government isn’t as we want it, it "will never be formed"!
