When will Speaker Nabih Berri call for a session to elect the President of the Republic? There are two weeks until Lebanon enters the constitutional deadline for electing a president. Berri had previously set a condition: the president will not be elected before the approval of all reform laws. His position is symbolic and calls for, in his capacity as Speaker, seeking the components for consensus among all. Thus, negotiations will be open for a presidential settlement amid discussions about economic and reform issues, returning to the comprehensive basket formula he prefers. Will that be feasible? No one has the answer, but indicators suggest significant international pressure to achieve the requirement on time.
**UNIFIL and Border Demarcation**
Before the presidential requirement, there are two notable events: the first is the renewal of UN peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon by the end of August. Ambassador to the UN Amal Mudallali is expected to submit a letter to the Security Council requesting an extension of UNIFIL's mandate. International consensus is available for the renewal without any new amendments. This will serve as a crucial message of the UN's commitment to stability in Lebanon, particularly in the south, linked to the anticipation of a visit by U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon to present his final proposal for resolving the border demarcation issue.
The second event is President Michel Aoun's visit to New York to participate in the regular UN meetings and deliver a speech from there. Aoun is expected to reiterate his previous positions on the need for reform in Lebanon with international support, following his diligent attempts that he claims were thwarted by internal forces. His speech will focus on discussing any possible presidential settlement or agreement, especially as he emphasizes the need for a new president to continue the reforms he started during his term. In Lebanon, there are those who wish to complete the presidential elections before Aoun travels to New York, but that poses significant challenges.
**International Dimensions of the Presidency**
Facts indicate that no party can produce a president aligned with one faction and rejected by the other. Everyone will be constrained by the need for consensus to secure the necessary quorum and votes, alongside the minimum level of external approval. In this context, it is essential to rely on international positions and how they reflect on the internal reality. Attention must be paid to the stances of the French, Americans, Saudis, and Iranians.
On the French side, there is clarity regarding the necessity of electing a president who is agreed upon by the Lebanese and presents a new image, capable of achieving results. Therefore, there is a desire for renewal. However, according to available data, another perspective is being pushed by some Lebanese forces towards France, aiming to gain support for a consensus candidate, even if from the political class based on realism. This could initiate what resembles a new French initiative in Lebanon, akin to the initiative following the August 4 explosion.
From the American and Saudi perspectives, based on derived positions, the focus is on the necessity of bringing in a new president from outside the political class, who is clear in his reform and change program, and aligns with a prime minister to implement the required reforms and proposed steps.
**Iran and Hezbollah**
These three forces are bound to seek consensus with Iran, and thus with Hezbollah. The elements of this consensus will be available through the nuclear deal process on one side and Iranian-Saudi negotiations on the other. If progress is made on these issues, this could translate into a consensus in Lebanon. However, if the process falters, the Lebanese stalemate is likely to persist and may be prolonged, which implies a continuation of the collapse, and perhaps lead to a new phase of social or political explosion.
