OPEC has maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth for the current year unchanged from the previous month’s assessment, despite the organization's optimism regarding global economic growth. In its monthly oil report, OPEC revised its projections for global economic growth for the current and following years by 0.1%, now expecting growth of 5.6% and 4.2% for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
However, OPEC stated that the economic recovery is expected to primarily occur in sectors that are not oil-intensive. Therefore, it did not change its crude oil demand estimate, which was announced in the previous month, set at an increase of approximately 6 million barrels per day, averaging 96.6 million barrels per day for the current year.
For 2022, OPEC still expects global oil demand to increase by 3.3 million barrels per day year-on-year, the same outlook announced by the organization last month. Global oil demand is expected to exceed 100 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022, reaching an average of 99.9 million barrels per day for the entire year of 2022.
The organization believes there is room for economic activities to gain momentum, supported by substantial stimulus packages. Additionally, it is anticipated that the COVID-19 pandemic will be controlled through vaccination programs and improved treatments, leading to further recovery in economic activity and a steady rise in oil demand both within and outside the OECD.
**OPEC Oil Demand**
The organization has adjusted its outlook for its oil demand for the current and upcoming years from its July assessment; now expecting a decrease of 200,000 barrels per day to 27.4 million barrels per day, although this remains approximately 4.7 million barrels per day higher than in 2020. OPEC also foresees a decrease in demand for 2022 of 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous month's assessment to 27.6 million barrels per day; however, this still exceeds last year’s figure by approximately 200,000 barrels.
