There is a strong consensus among Lebanese politicians and the general public that there will be no election for the presidency before October 31. This belief is based on facts and data that lead not only the Lebanese but also foreign countries familiar with the Lebanese situation to think that a vacancy will solely occupy the presidential seat. This scenario is driving the "Shiite duo" to earnestly seek to form a government to avoid a constitutional problem that has surfaced in the positions of the current administration regarding the refusal to hand over power to a government lacking full powers.
This concern prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to reach out to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, according to a ministerial source cited by "Al-Markazia." Macron asked Raisi to do what was possible to remove the obstacles preventing the timely accomplishment of the Lebanese presidential election and instructed Hezbollah not to obstruct it, as the state’s situation is deteriorating and cannot bear additional setbacks. If a vacancy occurs, the situation could spiral downwards, potentially reaching a point that former French Foreign Ministers Jean-Yves Le Drian and current Minister Catherine Colonna have repeatedly warned about, namely Lebanon’s disappearance from the global map. However, Raisi informed Macron that Iran is uninterested in Lebanon’s affairs, and the final word rests with Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
Consequently, the source adds, there was communication between a French official and another from Hezbollah for the same objective. The latter affirmed that the party has not nominated anyone for the elections and is backing Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in his choice. Hezbollah supports any president agreed upon by the Lebanese, provided they are not provocative. Communication occurred between a French official and a Hezbollah representative, wherein the latter conveyed that the party would not nominate anyone and supports a consensual president who uses dialogue to resolve crises. This means, according to the source, that Hezbollah will not replicate the scenario of bringing President Michel Aoun to Baabda, which involved preventing a presidential election for two and a half years to impose its candidate. The circumstances have changed, and what was applicable then is no longer the case now.
Hezbollah has realized that its candidate's term was catastrophic for the country in general and particularly for its Shiite base, which is why it decided not to adopt a candidate, especially after losing the parliamentary majority, making its role more effective and influential in imposing a veto on any unwanted candidate. Furthermore, its attempts to reconcile its allies, MP Gibran Bassil and Marada Movement leader Sleiman Franjieh, have failed due to Bassil's insistence on binding Franjieh with a set of conditions in exchange for supporting his presidential candidacy, which Franjieh rejected because the conditions were too high to accept, particularly as some involved appointments to the highest state positions.
The French effort will not stop there, the source concludes, as it will gain momentum with each day that passes without a call for a presidential election session... unless the election is expected to take place by November 1.
