A review of death data indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to kill Americans at a rate faster than guns, car accidents, and flu combined, even though half of the population has received vaccinations. Although the situation has significantly improved since January when COVID-19 deaths surpassed heart disease and cancer as the leading cause of death in the country, the pandemic caused 337 daily deaths in June, according to Bloomberg data, compared to an average of 306 deaths per day historically caused by gun violence, car accidents, and complications from the flu.
In a press briefing last week, Jeff Zients, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator, stated, “The sad thing is that we are still losing people to the virus despite the progress we have made. This is tragic, especially considering that it is not necessary at this stage and can be prevented. Currently, all hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States are among unvaccinated individuals.” The aggregated data for analysis comes from Johns Hopkins University, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
#### Delta Variant
After ten weeks of a global decline in COVID-19 deaths, the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant is driving a new increase in numbers, prompting health officials in the United States to warn of a potential similar decline, as daily cases have doubled from a low rate over the past month, leading to a rise in hospitalizations once again. Vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna prevent about 96% of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from the Delta variant, according to recent data from the United States, the UK, and Israel. This protection rate increases due to the reduced rate of transmission in communities where vaccination rates have risen, according to data scientist Kathy O’Neil in a Bloomberg opinion article.
Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, stated last Thursday that “preliminary data from several states in recent months indicate that 99.5% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States occurred in unvaccinated individuals. These deaths could have been averted with a simple, safe shot."
#### Decline in Vaccinations
Despite this, the American vaccination campaign has stalled. After initially being the focus for the rapid pace of its vaccination rollout, the United States has been surpassed by 20 countries that now enjoy better vaccination coverage, according to Bloomberg's COVID-19 vaccine tracker. The European Union and China are set to surpass the United States in the next two weeks, thanks to daily doses approaching 4 million and 10 million respectively.
Not only has the vaccination campaign in the United States significantly slowed to an average of 530,000 doses per day, but the gap between the most and least vaccinated American counties is also widening, exposing some communities to the risks of the Delta variant. The threat from COVID-19 is worse than ever for unvaccinated people living in communities with low vaccination rates.
An analysis published by researchers at Yale University and the Commonwealth Fund last week showed that COVID-19 vaccines in the United States prevented nearly 279,000 deaths and 1.25 million hospitalizations. However, without the vaccines, COVID-19 would continue to outpace cancer and heart disease as the leading cause of death in the country, even with the usual decline of respiratory viruses in the summer.
The sudden dominance of the Delta variant has surprised health officials around the world. In the Netherlands, cases surged by more than 500% last week alone, while the UK and Russia reported the highest infection rates since January. Israel has reinstated face mask mandates, and both Sydney and Melbourne have gone back into lockdown.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, stated in a press conference last Monday: “The spread of the Delta variant is accelerating worldwide, leading to a sharp rise in infections and deaths. The pandemic is not over anywhere.”
