The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on physical and mental health, the economy, children's education, and much more around the world. However, there will undoubtedly be an end to this viral pandemic. According to a model developed by scientists from Emory University and Penn State, the novel coronavirus will become an endemic virus like other known human coronaviruses, thus becoming a very low-level threat, similar to the common cold.
In fact, the novel coronavirus bears striking resemblance to the common cold virus and influenza, but it has ten times the ability to bind to human cell receptors, making it more dangerous and highly contagious. Dr. Jinny Lavine, the lead author of the study, noted that using the term "herd immunity" to explain what has happened with other common coronaviruses is somewhat partial and misleading. The four coronaviruses often infect most people during childhood, which generally allows children to develop natural immunity that protects them from severe disease later in life. However, this does not mean that reinfection can be prevented. Dr. Lavine adds, "A person can become infected again within a year, but even if this happens, the symptoms are mild, and the virus is cleared from the body more quickly."
It is worth noting that this study highlights the need to dissect the components of immunity against coronavirus and the importance of developing them in the future. How long does immunity formation last, and how long does it last in preventing transmission? Dr. Lavine states, "These periods can vary greatly. Generally, we are questioning the similarities and comparisons between the novel coronavirus and other viruses like seasonal influenza or respiratory syncytial virus. This model assumes that the immunity a person acquires against the coronavirus should function similarly to the immunity acquired against other human coronaviruses. We also do not really know how it will be if someone contracts one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as an adult, rather than as a child."
Professor Utar Bjornstad, a co-author of the study, said, "We are in unexplored territory, but the main message conveyed by this study is that immune indicators suggest that mortality rates and the urgent need for widespread vaccination may diminish in the near future. Therefore, every effort should be made to overcome this viral pandemic while it is on its way to becoming permanently endemic."
