Suddenly, the discussion in Lebanon shifted from focusing on the need to elect a new president to the necessity of forming a government. Since Najib Mikati submitted his proposed cabinet on June 29, the governmental dialogue has been muted, with a consensus that no new government would be formed as long as the presidential elections are imminent and focus must remain on this matter. This direction changed two weeks ago, and now the daily emphasis is on the necessity of forming a new government.
Meetings were held between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, while Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah made three successive statements stressing the need for a government to be formed.
### Acknowledgment of Vacuum
This shift indicates that changes have occurred. Firstly, it signifies acceptance of entering a phase of presidential vacancy, necessitating a search for ways to mitigate its risks by forming a government. Secondly, these ideas cannot be separated from the ongoing debate about powers, specifically that a caretaker government should not assume the presidential powers.
A set of reasons has driven the focus on forming a government rather than succumbing to the reality of a vacuum. This allows for the possibility of postponing the confrontation with urgent matters and avoiding crises related to both the presidential election and other political files, while awaiting developments in the region and their impact on internal affairs.
### Advice for Government Formation
In this context, informed sources indicate that intense pressure is being exerted from various parties, most notably Hezbollah and Amal Movement, to form a government, in order to prevent any unpredictable scenarios, such as the president refusing to leave the palace or handing over powers to the caretaker government. The advice directed at Mikati regarding the need to make the necessary concessions to form this government is increasing.
The fundamental basis for this is the belief that changes in the balance of power will take place. It is argued that after Aoun exits the presidential palace and returns to Rabieh, some changes in the political balance are inevitable. Gebran Bassil will not hold the same power, especially with the president no longer in Baabda, and in light of the possibility that some members of the Free Patriotic Movement may leave the bloc, Bassil will have to adopt a more realistic approach and will find himself compelled to offer concessions.
From this, it is clear that Hezbollah, which has succeeded in subduing many of its opponents or isolating others, and imposes its status on everyone regarding internal and external files, remains unable to effectively engage with its main ally, the Free Patriotic Movement. Therefore, it is essential for Hezbollah to find a way around Bassil's obstinacy.
### Hezbollah's Stance
Thus, the formation of a government is seen as a means to avoid multiple internal political crises and others related to external issues, such as the border demarcation file, amid unclear positions and decisions from the Israeli side while Hezbollah's threats remain prominent. It is evident that an election government in Israel cannot enter into serious negotiations and make concessions. Meanwhile, Hezbollah maintains its escalatory positions and threats. The Israelis are exploring various ideas to avoid escalation or to pressure Hezbollah to back down from its heightened rhetoric and avoid war, including the activation of shuttle diplomacy by Hochstein, postponing extraction from Karish, or other options.
Accordingly, American mediation has become linked to finding a way out of the embarrassment for everyone, including Hezbollah, with a focus from American and European sides to prevent any escalation and the implementation of threats, by looking for ways to address the party's conditions and, moreover, seeking to extricate Hezbollah from its current predicament and to avoid war.
