American reports have outlined scenarios for a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the timeframe in which Kyiv could fall, as well as the estimated number of casualties on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides and the potential number of refugees. According to what Fox News reported from sources within the U.S. Congress, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley informed lawmakers that "Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine occurs." The channel reported that "Milley told lawmakers during closed briefings on February 2 and 3 that a large-scale Russian invasion could lead to Kyiv's fall within 72 hours, resulting in 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 4,000 Russian soldiers killed (for a total of 19,000 casualties on both sides)."
It was mentioned that "some lawmakers expressed concern that President Joe Biden's administration did not respond quickly to provide Ukraine with substantial military aid, such as anti-aircraft missile systems and rocket launchers that would defend against any Russian invasion." Biden administration officials replied to these concerns in meetings by stating that "large supplies of military aid to Ukraine could be seen as a reason for a Russian invasion." While Ukraine received security assistance from the U.S. through a $200 million allocation in December, it also received $600 million in aid from the UK and the Baltic States, which the country heavily relies on, including Javelin anti-tank missiles and older Stinger portable anti-aircraft missiles. A source quoted in the report stated that "the United States is also preparing for a large refugee and migrant crisis... European allies are also leading discussions on housing and migrant flows, assuming that Ukrainian citizens will flee to other parts of Europe."
**Russian Denial and U.S. Response**
This comes at a time when Moscow denies any intention to invade Ukraine. Russian officials, including Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, have stated that Moscow does not pose a threat to Ukraine, suggesting that Russia has downplayed American propaganda and buildup regarding an imminent invasion of Ukraine. However, U.S. State Department spokesperson Geraldine Griffith stated in exclusive remarks to Sky News Arabia: "Unfortunately, there is a Russian campaign to influence the situation... There is a lot of misinformation from the Russian government... These Russian statements are inconsistent with Russia's actions on the ground." She continued: "On the ground, there is significant Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine... Russia is the aggressor, and the United States is working to build Ukraine's capacity to defend itself... Russian aggression threatens not only the United States but the security and stability of the international community as a whole."
**Russian Mobilization**
In this context, a report by CNN on Sunday quoted informed American officials saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin has now mobilized 70% of military personnel and weapons at the Ukrainian border. The report noted that this figure "is an estimate based on the latest intelligence assessments." It further mentioned that the humanitarian toll of a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be severe. Some assessments suggest that civilian casualties in Ukraine may reach tens of thousands, with up to five million refugees. Meanwhile, American officials are attempting to convey the potential dire outcomes and risks posed by Putin. The report stated that: "If Putin unleashes his full ground and air military power on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, the city could fall within 48 hours." Sources also estimate that Russia may decide to carry out a multifaceted operation and send forces from several directions across Ukraine to rapidly break the Ukrainian army's ability to fight as a cohesive force.
