Yesterday, the world was struck by a state of nuclear panic following the announcement of an attack on a nuclear reactor in Ukraine, an event that heightened concerns about the potential escalation of military operations in the region to something more dangerous. While the major wave of panic has extended beyond the borders of Russia and Ukraine, affecting the neighbors of these warring nations, its repercussions have ignited feelings of anxiety and fear globally, including in Lebanon.
### Life Security Threatened
It has become evident that Lebanon, which has already suffered from an economic, financial, and social nuclear bomb that has devastated everything and stripped it of any resistance to internal and external storms, has been ahead of the world in absorbing shocks. Its social security is in a state of decay, its healthcare is in severe decline, medical bills are exorbitant, and healthcare has become accessible only to the wealthy, while patients under social security are under threat. The country is now beginning to move toward a subsequent crisis, one that poses the gravest threat to its food security, as there are alarming warnings about the dwindling reserves of essential staples necessary for citizens, such as wheat, along with oils from Ukraine and Russia, and the inability, both financially and logistically, to find alternative sources. This situation heralds a grim reality for the country.
### Warning of the Worst to Come
Despite reassurances from some official and economic levels regarding the sufficiency of flour and food supplies for a month and a half, economists view these assurances as temporary, akin to a sedative—nothing more. The situation is frightening, even terrifying, as the effectiveness of the sedative will soon fade, and we will be forced to confront an extremely weak Lebanese reality, incapable of meeting its basic needs or securing a loaf of bread. An economic expert told "Al-Joumhouria": "There's no doubt that the economic and financial crisis in Lebanon has almost completely incapacitated it, yet that does not mean we should wait until we experience total paralysis. The government's handling of this imminent serious danger—should the situation escalate further in that war—can hardly be described as sufficient, as it is nearly non-existent.
There is no point in running away from reality and asserting that the crisis is not just Lebanon's but a global crisis too. Such statements would be valid only if Lebanon were fortified and truly capable of absorbing shocks. Lebanon is currently searching for suppliers of wheat and ways to finance its procurement. If we cannot pay for wheat, how can we endure?" The expert warned against an actual decline to the bottom of the abyss that we are already in, stating: "Lebanon is racing against such a fall, which necessitates immediate action from the government and responsible entities. Instead of being absorbed in monitoring the Ukrainian event and tracking the potential wildfire that could roll in every direction, they should at least initiate minimum protective measures in this regard with available resources; otherwise, this shortage, especially in wheat, will ultimately lead the country to real hunger."
### "No One Favors Us"
A responsible source told "Al-Joumhouria": "No one can predict the future of the war in Ukraine or its implications, nor the facts or principles that may arise on the international stage in general. Undoubtedly, its impacts are widespread at a global level, reaching our region. We cannot consider ourselves insulated from these repercussions, but independently of this war and its potential repercussions, Lebanon is in the worst crisis in its history. Local and external facts indicate that it has been left to its fate, grappling with an internal crisis mostly of its own making, which means it is out of the priority list of countries, even those considering it a brother or a friend. Now, with the new crisis between Russia and Ukraine, which has created new and confined priorities, how will it be placed on that list?"
The responsible source concluded: "I share the pessimism and fear regarding the implications of this war on us and the world; the situation is more than alarming. Regardless of the weak resources, the government can still act within these capabilities, because we are alone, where we must admit 'no one favors us', and there is no place for Lebanon on the international and even Arab priority lists."
### Increased International Gratitude
Noteworthy in this context is the international response towards Lebanon, expressing gratitude for its position on the Russia-Ukraine war and its vote in the United Nations. A recent development included a visit from an expanded European Union delegation to President Michel Aoun, which included ambassadors and charge d'affaires from Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Denmark, Greece, Spain, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Sweden. The delegation reiterated its thanks to Lebanon for its position in the UN General Assembly regarding the Ukraine crisis, where it joined 140 nations in condemning the unprovoked Russian aggression that violated international laws and threatened security and stability in Europe.
According to official reports, President Aoun confirmed during the meeting that "returning to a negotiation option is the best way to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as relying on peaceful means leads to saving lives and avoids aggravating conflicts among states in general and neighboring countries in particular." He emphasized the importance of adopting the language of dialogue and solidarity among peoples and states during crises and wars, stating: "Lebanon has always been and continues to be against any military action directed against any free and independent state, considering it an aggression against sovereignty and independence and against the peaceful people. Lebanon has suffered greatly from problems and wars that had dire consequences for its people and infrastructure, particularly during the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982."
### Negotiations with the Fund
On another note, as Lebanon awaits the return of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation to Beirut in the coming days, government sources told "Al-Joumhouria" that the anticipated visit of the IMF delegation is crucial for preparing a swift start to negotiations, aiming for a cooperation program expected to contribute 3 to 4 billion dollars. In response to a question about the validity of the rumors that the recovery plan prepared by the government did not convince the IMF, potentially delaying the start of negotiations, the sources simply stated: "We hear much talk and many distractions, and unrealistic scenarios, while the actual situation is quite different. Discussions with IMF officials are proceeding in the right direction; contrary to what is said, the atmosphere is positive regarding the recovery plan."
### "Capital Control"
Furthermore, Western diplomatic sources disclosed to "Al-Joumhouria" that the recent visit of the IMF delegation, along with a visit from a U.S. Treasury delegation, was highly significant, particularly regarding how to extricate Lebanon from its crisis and facilitate the arrival of international aid. According to the same sources, "Top officials in Lebanon have been informed with great clarity that the responsible entities in Lebanon are obliged to take basic, urgent, and responsible steps to ease reaching a cooperation program with the IMF and encourage international financial institutions to open avenues of assistance to Lebanon. Without these steps, Lebanon will certainly not receive anything."
The sources revealed that "the most significant of these steps lies in approving the law related to lifting banking secrecy, as well as a realistic and well-studied 'capital control' law that meets its intended purpose and addresses the need for it, rather than a meaningless version. Additionally, loss distribution must be fair and precise, without placing burdens on depositors. Finally, there is the essential issue of completing forensic auditing." They pointed out that the delays in these steps, which Lebanon should have taken at least two years ago, complicated matters further, with any continuation meaning Lebanon will not receive even one dollar.
### Under a Month
Politically, with the increasing number of candidates for the parliamentary elections as the final days of the nomination period, ending March 15, approach, the electoral machines are escalating their activities across regions, while communications are underway between various factions and orientations to formulate alliances and create electoral lists, which are expected to take their final shape 40 days before the elections set for May 15, meaning the deadline is less than a month away. Amid this atmosphere, the government postponed the issue of the "megacenter" to the next session, where it was not resolved during yesterday's cabinet meeting held at the presidential palace in Baabda, noting that indicators confirm that completing this matter is not feasible due to financial, technical, and logistical reasons.
It was decided to extend the municipal elections until May 31, 2013, with the draft law for extension to be referred to the Parliament for a suitable decision. In an opening statement during the meeting, President Michel Aoun called for "the necessity of taking swift measures to guarantee the food security of Lebanese citizens, following the military developments between Russia and Ukraine, and the need to confront price hikes and prevent monopolies." He noted that "the IMF delegation highlighted the need to approve the recovery plan as soon as possible, which should include restructuring the Central Bank and banks, unifying the exchange rate, distributing losses, and necessary structural financial reforms, along with a social safety net plan." He stated: "The IMF delegation emphasized the necessity of ensuring political consensus to approve the recovery plan." Aoun affirmed: "The financial situation is extremely delicate and does not tolerate any delay," saying: "I put everyone before their responsibilities."
Prime Minister Najib Mikati explained the reasons that led Lebanon to take a position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, stating: "This position stems from a historical narrative of principled stances Lebanon has taken in condemning any state that invades a neighboring state, while our stance on Russia is based on the necessity of establishing the best relations with it." He discussed the issue of food security, urging the need to anticipate addressing the situation that could arise if the war between Russia and Ukraine prolongs, proposing "preventive measures to avert a food crisis in the country." He also presented "the discussions with the U.S. Treasury delegation and the points raised during those talks, particularly regarding combating corruption and activating the work of the National Anti-Corruption Commission that has been formed, in the fastest time, to confirm the seriousness of the Lebanese state in combating corruption."
It was reported that Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram made an intervention questioning: "Why does Lebanon repeatedly take a stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine, siding in a way that brings no benefits but only harms our difficult and complex situation? Doesn't this position deserve to be discussed in the Council of Ministers to be presented correctly, especially since we have previously objected to the actions of the Foreign Minister? And yet, the situation repeats itself in the UN voting without discussion in the Council of Ministers. Are we not all concerned in the Council of Ministers in taking Lebanese political stances towards the various positions?" In response, the Prime Minister said: "We have told you that Russia is not targeted by the statement; we are against any international intervention in any country, regardless of which country it is."
It was also reported that ministers from the "Amal Movement" and "Hezbollah" expressed their objection to the proposed security agreement with the United States, regarding what they called "the need to maintain the state's sovereignty in its right to distribute aid to its security forces at its will."
### Israeli Warning
On the southern front, the Israeli permanent representative to the UN, Gilad Erdan, warned of the outbreak of military confrontation with "Hezbollah" due to what he described as "the continued military activity of the latter near the borders." After meeting with the new commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Arnaldo Lazaro Sainz, Erdan stated: "The actions of 'Hezbollah' could lead to a future military confrontation that could bring disaster to Lebanon, and Israel would have to respond forcefully." He added: "I expect UNIFIL forces to fully implement resolution 1701 and prevent 'Hezbollah' from doing as it pleases."
### Sanctions
In a related context regarding the party, the U.S. Treasury Department announced on Friday the imposition of sanctions on financiers of the Lebanese "Hezbollah" in Guinea, aiming to disrupt its operations network in West Africa. The U.S. Treasury's Assistant Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence stated that the department continues to expose businesspeople supporting "Hezbollah’s" destabilizing activities through bribery and other corrupt practices. He announced the inclusion of Lebanese businessmen Ali Saada and Ibrahim Taher on the sanctions list for providing financial and material assistance to "Hezbollah." The U.S. Treasury stated in a statement that it has also added Adel Diab, Ali Mohammed Al-Daon, Jihad Salim Al-Alam, and their company "Dar Al-Salam for Travel and Tourism" to its sanctions list. It added, "Through businessmen like those identified today, 'Hezbollah' receives both logistical and financial support through the legitimate business sector, to fund its terrorist operations and its attempts to destabilize Lebanese political institutions."
