Lebanon

The Implications of Ukraine: No Wheat, No Oil... and the Ruthless Traders Heighten Their Monopoly

The Implications of Ukraine: No Wheat, No Oil... and the Ruthless Traders Heighten Their Monopoly

The newspaper "Al-Jomhouria" reported: As concerns continue to focus on the Russian-Ukrainian war, amidst a persistent local, regional, and international division on the stance toward it, Lebanon has started to feel its negative repercussions in the complete absence of authority. This situation has provided a new excuse for ruthless traders and monopolizing strongholds to raise prices beyond madness, especially on food commodities imported from the warring countries, without any oversight or accountability. Meanwhile, the election campaigns have continued along with the debates and squabbles among some concerned parties, further escalating the internal atmosphere and raising the levels of doubts or excuses that could be used to justify postponing the constitutional entitlement under the pretext of global preoccupation with the Russian-Ukrainian war, alongside other regional and international issues, primarily the situation in the region concerning the Iranian nuclear agreement that the concerned countries are close to signing in Vienna.

#### Week of "Megacenters"

On the governmental front, the file of "megacenter" polling places proposed to be adopted in the upcoming parliamentary elections will once again come to the forefront, as the ministerial committee assigned to review the proposals submitted by Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi to the Cabinet during its session last Friday will begin its discussions. This is in preparation for presenting a detailed report to be discussed in the Cabinet session scheduled for next Thursday at the Presidential Palace, along with an agenda that includes a series of administrative, technical, and social issues. Ministerial sources told "Al-Jomhouria" that deep disagreements will emerge among the members of the ministerial committee responsible for preparing the "megacenters" as they convene this afternoon. Each member has a set of conflicting observations that could lead, if retained, to the impossibility of reaching a consensus on the project.

#### Logistical and Legislative Difficulties

In this context, official sources confirmed to "Al-Jomhouria" that completing the "megacenters" before the parliamentary elections scheduled for next May is impossible, and thus this proposal should be withdrawn from circulation, and preparations should be made to complete the entitlement according to the current law. The sources pointed out that there are logistical and legislative difficulties that cannot be overcome in the time remaining before the elections. In relation to the parliamentary entitlement, it was learned that among the reasons still prompting the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement to delay announcing their candidate names for the electoral entitlement is waiting for the scenario that will be adopted for nominations and voting in the joint constituencies, whether regarding cooperation or distancing.

#### The Presidency and the Party

Meanwhile, opposition circles pointed out to "Al-Jomhouria" three files that represent contradictions and disagreements between the presidency and "Hezbollah":

- The first file pertains to the statement issued by the Lebanese Foreign Ministry regarding the Russian war on Ukraine, which received clear support from President Michel Aoun, who congratulated Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib on it as revealed by the latter. However, "Hezbollah" faced it with strong opposition, considering that the Foreign Ministry "abandoned neutrality under pressure from the U.S. administration and ambassador," accusing it of "serving the American agenda," while limiting its criticism to the Foreign Ministry to avoid direct confrontation with the presidency, knowing that its objection reached the presidency, which insisted on reaffirming the same stance in a statement that carried the same content.

- The second file is related to demarcating the maritime borders, with a clear inclination from Aoun to proceed with this file, announcing that line 29 is a negotiating line while starting from line 23, which forms an acceptable negotiating basis, and describing the American mediator as "honest," in contrast to "Hezbollah's" attacks on this mediator. Baabda did not stop at this point but rather its sources responded to the head of the "Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, who confirmed that "the American mediator is playing the role of the fox, and we tell him we will keep our gas buried in our waters," thus their response was: "Raad's words are merely a statement for political investment, and come within the framework of internal calculations and contestations and bidding." Aoun continues in negotiations regarding demarcation as long as the honest American mediator is still working on this line.

- The third file pertains to the "megacenter," in light of Aoun's strong insistence on approving this item despite logistical difficulties and the countdown to elections, his insistence sends an implicit message to "Hezbollah," which opposes the "megacenter" without openly declaring so, because this procedure facilitates it for its opponents to vote against it, and it may be the only team opposing this reform item. The insistence of the presidency on it is nothing but a message that it will provide space for those against the party to exercise their democratic right.

Opposition circles also anticipated that the discrepancies between the presidency and "Hezbollah" will widen in this transitional phase leading to the presidential elections, with the party not having resolved the direction it will take in these elections. Further, they questioned how these disagreements would affect the alliance in the parliamentary elections and where the party's interest lies in creating a popular support base for the presidency that compensates for its retreat within the Christian environment, especially since its considerations in several files have become closer to Washington than to the southern suburbs.

#### European Reaction after the American

On another front, the Western and international diplomatic offensive toward Lebanon remains ongoing, and no sooner had a delegation from the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department left Beirut than a large European parliamentary delegation arrived yesterday afternoon, comprising 16 deputies from the "European People's Party" that spans most EU member states. Diplomatic sources informed "Al-Jomhouria" that the mission of the delegation, which includes deputies from countries neighboring Russia and Ukraine, is to explain the circumstances surrounding the Russian war on Ukraine and the reasons that led to its outbreak, as well as to thank Lebanese officials for their stance on events in Eastern Europe. The delegation will meet today with President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, before meeting with members of the parliamentary committees and representatives of friendly Lebanese parties. "Al-Jomhouria" was informed that the delegation comprises 27 members, including 16 deputies chaired by French MEP Frank Prost, from Belgium, Slovakia, Serbia, Croatia, Italy, Latvia, Belarus, Germany, Greece, and Cyprus. The delegation is accompanied by 11 European officials who are heads and executives from major European strategic and developmental research institutions operating in Europe and the Middle East, including some of the largest French and German companies.

#### Russian Statement

Upon the arrival of the European delegation and during the exchange of accusatory statements between the European Union and Russia, the Russian embassy in Lebanon expressed in a statement last night "gratitude to the Russian and Lebanese citizens from the community, graduates, and friends who supported Russia during this difficult time." It stated that in Lebanon, "many prominent local political leaders contact us daily to express their solidarity with Russia's positions and actions." It pointed out that "regardless of Beirut's official stance, we see that they generally understand the reality of the situation and share our yearning for the legitimate right of any country to guarantee national security."

#### Algerian Foreign Minister

In the first Arab diplomatic move toward Lebanon following the visit of the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister a few weeks ago, Algerian Foreign Minister Ramadan Lamamra arrived in Beirut yesterday on an official visit to deliver a special message from Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to his Lebanese counterpart, General Michel Aoun, this morning in the presence of Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib. The message will inform him about the ongoing preparations in Algeria to host the postponed annual Arab summit, originally scheduled for March 22, but moved to the coming autumn for a physical meeting after a two-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, along with efforts to restore Arab-Arab relations. The Algerian guest will meet with the three presidents and the Foreign Minister, and discussions will focus on the agenda of the Arab summit and relations between Lebanon and Algeria, as well as other international and Arab issues.

#### Patriarch

On the political front, the weekend was filled with various statements regarding internal entitlements and the Russian-Ukrainian war and its implications. In this context, Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Peter Al-Rahi addressed the war between Russia and Ukraine during the mass for "Leprosy Sunday" in Bkerke, calling for peaceful resolution of the conflict. He then addressed the internal situation, stating: "We strive with those of goodwill to ensure that our parliamentary elections occur on time, so that the voice returns to the people. We only hope that the people speak the truth in their choice, renewing the political class, and not missing the opportunity for change. This is a time for saving Lebanon, not for petty calculations. It is not permissible under any pretext to bypass this constitutional entitlement inherent to the democratic system. It is the duty of those who seek to create excuses to postpone the elections to direct their efforts towards providing the best possible conditions for conducting them. We hope that those who deserve to represent citizens will participate in the elections."

He added: "The people want brave deputies, fortified by ethics, confident in themselves, independent in their decisions, firm in their refusals of what should be rejected, and decisive in accepting what should be accepted. The people want deputies who understand legislation and accountability, are capable of bearing responsibility, and will confront corruption in all its forms. To the extent that deputies face challenges in Parliament, they spare the people the need to resort to the streets. This time, being a deputy is not a privilege or a political pleasure, but rather a service, struggle, and democratic confrontation, as we are heading toward significant choices in the coming months and the new presidential term. Lebanon cannot remain in the void, chaos, collapse, and uncertainty."

#### Aoud

For his part, Metropolitan Elias Aoude of Beirut and its surrounding areas for the Greek Orthodox Church, during a mass at St. George's Cathedral, called on the Lebanese, on the occasion of Lent, "to get used to self-control of their emotions, senses, and speech towards those who hold different opinions, regardless of their opinion, religion, or affiliation." He remarked that the problem is "that people are influenced by the views of leaders and patrons, leading them to rancor, disputes, and selfishness, forgetting that they are effectively enslaving themselves to the creature instead of the Creator. In all countries, there are parties, yet people do not quarrel based on party affiliation or fight and threaten each other; rather, we find party members and election candidates debating rationally and logically, competing to serve the public, and the people choose what fits their needs, using logic and free will in the ballots. In the world, leaders fear the people, not the other way around, so why doesn’t our people exploit the transformative power instead of relying on physical force, insults, or weapons?"

He added: "Awareness is required from the people, and escaping from the abyss into which the powerful and wealthy have led us can only be achieved by uniting around one idea, which is to preserve this country, a homeland for all its sons, a country governed by laws where justice and equality prevail so that no faction dominates another, nor imposes its concepts on others, nor places its interests above the public good, and no group oversteps the sovereignty of the state or monopolizes its decision-making or obstructs its ability to take decisions."

#### Jaouja

During a retreat for the leaders of the electoral centers and the electoral machinery in Batroun held in Maarab, Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces party, called for the ousting of the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, in the upcoming elections "for various uncountable reasons." He clarified that "the Lebanese Forces is a political party that seeks to implement its political project; thus, it is not responsible for ousting Bassil or anyone else; rather, this role falls on the voters. If you re-elect Bassil, you will commit a very bad act against the Lebanese people because his harm has impacted all Lebanese." He emphasized that "Bassil does not bear sole responsibility for our situation, but he is one of the key pillars of the authority that significantly contributed to bringing us to this state."

He commented on the recent televised interview of MP Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada Movement, describing it as "telling," and said: "We are strategic competitors to the axis of resistance to which Franjieh belongs, namely that of Bashar al-Assad, Hassan Nasrallah, and their allies." While affirming, "our view of Franjieh is similar to his view of us," he indicated that "this is the answer for those who ask us why we chose Aoun over Franjieh, because the latter is more deeply rooted in the axis of resistance; Aoun is not sincere with this axis as he is not explicit about anything else, and we see that this axis is destructive for Lebanon."

#### Hezbollah

MP Hussein Haj Hassan, a member of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, confirmed during a memorial ceremony in West Bekaa that the "commitment to the alliance with Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, along with all resistance and opposition forces, is not limited to the parliamentary or municipal elections but extends across all political stages for many years." He stated: "What is happening now is an attack on Lebanon and some Lebanese groups, the objective being to weaken us and our allies and our environment in order to impose an American political agenda on Lebanon that includes undermining Lebanon’s capacity to resist American and Israeli projects in the region at all levels, taking Lebanon toward normalization and demarcation of southern maritime borders as the Zionist enemy desires, after which resettlement becomes a fait accompli."

He argued that "the war on Lebanon now is an economic war led by the United States; no sooner does a delegation from the Treasury Department leave than another appears. Every day they have questions, a list of sanctions, and interference in the Lebanese internal affairs." He said: "We tell the Americans that the 'Karamet al-Hassan' will remain a thorn in your side; the sovereigns have swallowed their tongues. Americans are responsible for the delay in extracting Lebanese oil and gas, not just in Block 9 but also in Block 4, and in the midst of a crippling economic crisis where we need revenue, they are blocking extraction. This is information, not analyses, aimed at pressuring Lebanon and Lebanese people."

#### Minister of Agriculture

Agriculture Minister Abbas Al-Haj Hassan stated in a radio interview that "the ministry will work to prevent the export of agricultural products and others, in an attempt to mitigate the crisis amid the ongoing war in Ukraine," confirming that he "is one of the foremost supporters of the decision to cultivate soft wheat in Lebanon to secure daily bread for the Lebanese." He emphasized that "negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are progressing quickly," hoping that "an agreement will be reached before the upcoming parliamentary elections to prove to donor parties the seriousness of Lebanon."

#### Qablan

The Superior Shiite Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Qablan affirmed that "the crisis in Ukraine is very serious, and any error in the course of the war could lead to a global catastrophe. Therefore, we were the first to call on the Lebanese government, especially the Ministry of Economy, to preempt the dire consequences resulting from the Ukrainian crisis, which it did not, and today the crisis of wheat, grains, oil, and fuel is knocking at our doors, and the citizen is once again a victim of the market sharks and their monopolists." He pointed out that "finding an alternative for Ukraine has been excessively delayed, and the Ministry of Economy is first among the dead, while the central banker acts as if he is in another world. Because there is no effective authority, the country is now in the grip of the merchants and market thieves."

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