The newspaper "Al-Jumhuriya" wrote: The international scene is filled with pivotal events, and all indicators undeniably confirm that what is happening in Ukraine is not merely a transient military operation but a genuine crisis at a high level of danger, opening the international door to various possibilities, storms, and catastrophic scenarios.
There is no dispute that the realities of Ukraine are charting a new map, the outlines of which are difficult to determine, especially since this war is still in its early stages and its horizon is open over an unspecified time frame. The whole world stands apprehensively before the flames of the conflict in Ukraine and its open repercussions, particularly with growing fears that this war could create serious, unconventional dramatic realities that cross all borders.
What is clear is that this war has necessitated mobilization across the entire international expanse, in anticipation of its effects, which has altered the agendas of countries and restricted their priorities to containing these impacts and mitigating their damages and negatives. However, the situation in Lebanon appears to lack any measure, even if hesitant, in the direction of securing the interior, while the political administration of the country is at peak relaxation, at a time when Lebanon's inherent fragility makes it one of the leading countries likely to receive shocks.
**Emergency Plan**
This situation requires, at the very least, as a responsible reference told "Al-Jumhuriya," the formulation of an urgent emergency plan. For although Lebanon is far from the theater of war events in Ukraine in terms of distance, it is at the eye of the storm. It cannot benefit from a tactic of bowing before the Ukrainian winds that carry implications for the entire world; rather, the government must hasten to take precautionary steps in anticipation of any emergency, particularly concerning the provision of essential materials, especially medical, food, and supply goods, and to multiply them, especially given the potential escalation of the earthquake that has started to stir in Ukraine, which, according to existing escalation indicators, may not remain confined within its current borders.
**Diplomatic Concerns**
The grim picture painted by responsible references regarding the future situation at the global level reaching Lebanon intersects with a concerned diplomatic response expressed by the ambassador of a major state in Beirut to a senior Lebanese official when the latter asked about the aftermath of events in Ukraine. The ambassador stated verbatim: "We are witnessing the worst and most dangerous war since World War II, and it now threatens global security and peace. In answer to your question, no one knows how things will unfold, and it is too early to determine a specific reading, but we are very concerned. There is massive destruction, a huge number of displaced people, and the horizon is open to broad repercussions, so it is natural, with these developments, not to rule out all difficult possibilities."
**Internal: Hesitation**
In connection with this, the internal scene seems to be in a state of confusion. The impact of the Foreign Ministry's statement condemning what it termed the Russian invasion of Ukraine has not yet dissipated, as it remains within the framework of internal debates and confrontations, alongside ongoing attempts to discover who is the "parent" of this statement and its purpose at this time and in this context. Meanwhile, there has been Ukrainian praise for the Foreign Ministry's statement expressed by the Ukrainian ambassador in Lebanon, Igor Oustosch, during a press conference he held yesterday, where he said: "As a diplomat, I take pride in Lebanon, which condemned (despite its difficult circumstances) the invasion of Ukrainian territories and issued a statement that said: 'Given what Lebanon's modern history has witnessed of military incursions into its territory causing severe losses that affected its stability and development for many years, Lebanon condemns the invasion of Ukrainian territories and calls on Russia to immediately cease military operations, withdraw its forces, and return to dialogue and negotiation as the best means to resolve the ongoing conflict.'"
**Questions on the Home Front**
On the other hand, the political atmosphere has become governed by questions that have started accumulating since the beginning of the war in Ukraine last Thursday, surrounding the fate of internal deadlines marked by question marks, the closest of which is the electoral entitlement which is now just 76 days away on May 15. Although these questions are legitimate, as government sources involved in the electoral file say, they confirmed to "Al-Jumhuriya" that the parliamentary elections will take place on schedule, regardless of the circumstances.
In response to a question about whether the potential repercussions have imposed difficult realities threatening the electoral entitlement, the government sources stated: "Any talk about disrupting the electoral entitlement is mere noise and an attempt to impede it. Let's not indulge in speculation and draw unrealistic scenarios; it is certain that the elections will take place at the scheduled time, and all logistical preparations are ready for conducting them."
**Rush to the Internal Affairs Ministry!**
What is noted in the electoral context is that time is pressing for those wishing to submit their candidacies for the parliamentary elections, especially since the deadline for officially submitting candidacies to the Ministry of Interior ends on March 15, which means that the sluggishness in submitting candidacies that has prevailed since the issuance of the related statement by the Ministry of Interior will turn over the coming two weeks into a moment akin to a rush to the Ministry of Interior to formally submit candidacies for the May 15 elections.
**Hope for Completion of the Entitlement**
Additionally, the "Amal Movement" confirmed its commitment to "complete the parliamentary elections entitlement with full responsibility and transparency, and that the competent authorities follow through with everything necessary to achieve the desired outcome." In this regard, the movement calls on its supporters and constituents to prepare all necessary atmospheres for wide participation both in Lebanon and abroad.
In a statement from its political office yesterday, the movement halted at the events taking place on the Russian-Ukrainian front, expressing regret over "the negligence practiced by the Lebanese government regarding its citizens abroad, especially students dispersed throughout the world, and the ordeal they are experiencing in Ukraine, and the late awakening on evacuating and caring for them to return to the embrace of the homeland," demanding "the utmost necessary procedures and contacts to ensure their safety."
On another front, the movement stated that "the approval of the initial electricity plan does not stand unless there is serious implementation and a commitment to the stipulations of the Cabinet's decision and the acceleration in appointing the regulatory authority for the sector and applying Law 462 as a basis for addressing the electricity situation in all its aspects."
**Budget and IMF Mission**
On another internal side, while the current year's budget project made its way to the House of Representatives yesterday, with President Michel Aoun signing the referral decree and awaiting the parliamentary finance and budget committee to begin its study of the project within the limits of its timeframe by the end of March, the International Monetary Fund delegation headed by the Fund's mission head to Lebanon, Ernesto Ramirez, began its discussions in Beirut, where he met with Speaker Nabih Berri.
According to information from Ain Al-Tineh, "a discussion was presented on the stages of the ongoing dialogue between Lebanon and the Fund and the legislation completed by the Parliament and what is in the process of being finalized later, particularly the 'capital control' law, where the necessity to preserve depositors' rights was emphasized as a priority."
At this time, accompanying sources for the IMF delegation's visit confirmed to "Al-Jumhuriya" that this visit is decisive this time, as it has come to directly assess the extent of preparations that the government has reached to enter into negotiations with the Fund that would lead to a cooperation agreement allowing Lebanon to obtain necessary aid to overcome its economic and financial crisis.
According to the same sources, the Fund's delegation is still waiting for Lebanon, and alongside what it has previously heard in public confirmations from the Lebanese side regarding its completion of what is required in this field, especially regarding the government's completion of its program and recovery plan and objectively identifying and distributing losses, contrary to the randomness that prevailed previously, the necessity has become compelling for the Lebanese side to enter into the actual application phase of what it commits to, especially since the Fund continues to express its readiness to cooperate with Lebanon but within the conditions that facilitate negotiations with the Lebanese government leading to an agreement on a collaboration program, which is what the Lebanese side should provide in a way that leads to productive negotiations, and providing these objective conditions would launch these negotiations within a short period, leading to reaching a cooperation agreement within a short time frame as well, which is a crucial interest for Lebanon.
According to the same sources, the Fund's observations remain centered on the government of Lebanon's delay in completing the negotiation file and the required reform obligations, in addition to a negative approach to the draft budget for the year 2022, particularly since its content was numerical, without addressing the reform requirements that Lebanon needs to set it on the path to recovery. The budget may be a negative and obstructive factor, especially since it does not meet the requirements.
**An Iranian Estimate for Aoun**
Meanwhile, President Michel Aoun affirmed the importance of peace among peoples, which guarantees them comfort and a happy life. Aoun, during his reception of Iranian Culture Minister Mohammad Mahdi Esmaeili, hoped for success in the Vienna negotiations as "an indicator of peace, not just for Iran but for the entire region."
On his part, the Iranian minister stated that his country "views with great appreciation the principled, pivotal, and steadfast positions of the President of the Republic, which have given the Lebanese Republic this unique status it enjoys, and that through your political work, you have exerted all your strength to preserve the unity of Lebanon, government, and people, and succeeded in crowning your journey with success."
The Iranian minister emphasized that "the new Iranian government is focusing on an open and constructive foreign policy, aimed at establishing the best bridges of trust, meeting, and dialogue with the countries of the region in general, and friends and brothers in particular." He stated, "The Vienna talks are proceeding positively, which can help in reaching a positive and constructive agreement. The Islamic Republic insists on ensuring that the agreement is fair and final."
**We Will Keep Our Gas Buried!**
In a notable position, the head of the "Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc, MP Muhammad Raad, during a celebration in Kfarfila, said: "The American intermediary in oil exploration in Lebanon recently came to Lebanon to play the role of the fox in dividing the pie among the disputants. In order for us to explore our regional waters for gas extraction to pay off our debts with its price, he tells you that you will drill in water, and it is possible that the gas field could be shared between you and the Israelis."
He added: "We say that we will keep our gas buried in our waters until we can prevent the Israelis from reaching a drop of water from our waters. We are not incapable, and the enemy and those who communicate with him, whether intermediaries or not, should know that the Israelis will not be able to explore for gas next to us unless we explore for gas and invest it as we wish, and let them worry about the sea. We will not allow the Israelis to explore for gas without being able to explore for it in our waters. If you are not strong enough to protect your right, then the support from all countries will be of no benefit to you."
Raad also addressed the statement from the Lebanese Foreign Ministry regarding the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, saying: "It responds to the mood of some Lebanese who favor the West, but Lebanon has nothing to do with Ukraine or Russia. The issue is that the American ambassador was calling all night with everyone to issue a statement in which the position would not be against America."
On his part, the head of the "Lebanese Forces" party, Samir Geagea, confirmed that "the overwhelming attack from some on all parties and the concept of partisan work, which has led to an attempt to divide society between supporters of parties or opponents of them, is far from reality and constitutes the largest forgery in the history of societies and in the history of Lebanon."
Geagea pointed out in a speech during a celebration organized by the physiotherapy professionals in the "Lebanese Forces," that "the role of political parties is an essential necessity in societies," lamenting that "we have seen in the last two years an attack on the concept of partisan work, which is very serious, due to the negligence of some and the bad intentions of others under the pretext that Lebanon has reached this situation because of the parties, while these people forget that just as some parties carry the responsibility of what we have reached, so too do some independent figures."
He noted that there are "negligent, opportunistic, and chaotic individuals who emerge during crises, and we see them today in all areas from Beirut to Bsharri, promoting the idea that all parties are worthless," ignoring that "at least there is one party that does not belong to the group that is worthless, which is the Lebanese Forces Party."
While expressing regret that "the campaign launched against parties under the banner of 'All means all' has hit a fundamental principle in society, which is partisan work," he stressed that "no society can succeed in rising without parties."
He pointed out that "working inside the government is very difficult, especially if they are a minority in it," noting that "the electricity file is good evidence of this, as the 'Lebanese Forces' since 2016 have tried to rectify what happened in this file but did not succeed despite all the studies that its MPs and ministers worked on."
He stated: "We are entering the parliamentary elections to succeed in achieving bigger and more achievements in the coming years, as the result that the Lebanese have reached today is due to their choice in the 2018 elections, granting the Shia duo and their close associates more than 40 deputies and the 'Free Patriotic Movement' 27 deputies, which means the majority of the Parliament."
