Claire Chahrour wrote an article in "Nidaa Al-Watan" stating that in the previous electoral cycle, just minutes after the preliminary results of the Chouf - Aley district elections were announced, the head of the "Arab Tawhid Party," Wiam Wahhab, did not hide his "anger," directing it all toward his ally, "Hezbollah," blaming it for his failure to secure enough votes to cross the electoral threshold. At that time, the "Free Patriotic Movement" ran in alliance with the "Lebanese Democratic Party," while Wahhab stood alone, achieving a surprising performance with 12,796 votes, just 329 votes shy of the first threshold, and receiving 7,340 preferential votes, surpassing Marwan Hamadeh, who garnered 7,266 votes. This made the scenario of his overcoming the challenge in 2022 costly.
Thus, with the formation of the alliance between the "Free Patriotic Movement," "Lebanese Democratic Party," and "Tawhid Party," in contrast to the alliance of the "Progressive Socialist Party," "Lebanese Forces," "Liberals," and the new rival, the "Change Forces," initial estimates of the results of the May 15 battle diverged from the norm.
In detail, the first alliance now includes: Talal Arslan (Druze seat - Aley), Cesar Abi Khalil (Maronite seat - Aley), Antoine Bustani (Maronite seat - Aley), Tarek Khairallah (Orthodox seat - Aley), Farid Bustani (Maronite seat - Chouf), Wiam Wahhab (Druze seat - Chouf), Najy Bustani (Maronite seat - Chouf), Ahmed Najm al-Din (Sunni seat - Chouf), Osama Ma'oush (Sunni seat - Chouf), Ghassan Atallah (Catholic seat - Chouf), and Antoine Aboud (Maronite seat - Chouf).
The second alliance includes: in Chouf: Taymour Jumblatt (Druze seat), Marwan Hamadeh (Druze seat), George Adwan (Maronite seat), Haboubah Aoun (Maronite seat), Eli Qardahi (Maronite seat), Bilal Abdullah (Sunni seat), Saad al-Din al-Khatib (Sunni seat), Fadi Malouf (Catholic seat). And in Aley: Akram Shehayyeb (for one of the Druze seats), Raji al-Saad (Maronite seat), Joel Fadoul (Maronite seat), and Nazih Metta (Orthodox seat). The second Druze seat was kept vacant in favor of MP Talal Arslan.
Simultaneously, it is rumored that the "Change Forces" are finalizing a unified list after overcoming obstacles, while initial estimates give this understanding, if achieved, a chance to cross the electoral threshold, which exceeded 13,000 votes in 2018 but dropped to around 10,700 votes upon recalculation.
In reality, the discussions within the two party lists revealed some obstacles that required numerous meetings to address. The "Forces'" insistence on assigning the Catholic seat in Chouf to the Lebanese Liberals (Fadi Malouf) slightly delayed the formation of their list, knowing that the "Progressive Socialist Party" views this particular seat as a "soft spot" that could be taken from their quota following the withdrawal of MP Ni'meh Tohmeh from running, especially since the "Socialist Party" will focus its efforts primarily on the two Druze seats to prevent any breach that Wahhab might impose.
Conversely, the so-called "Bustani Crisis" delayed the formation of the "Current" - Arslan - Wahhab list until the last moments before heading to the Ministry of Interior on the last day of the legal deadline for list registration. However, the pillars of this list are undeterred by the "dust" surrounding its formation, as they view it as an achievement that will be remembered, being the first of its kind in the mountain in decades. They estimate that the importance of the alliance lies in two elements: the first is the political momentum that the list will create among the mountain's residents, potentially encouraging high participation on May 15 to enforce a new reality, as it is primarily a political battle.
The second relates to the numbers game, where the pillars of the list claim that this understanding will contribute to securing five seats, and if the electoral campaign proceeds as planned, they may exceed five. According to them, the quota will begin with a Maronite seat and a Druze seat in Aley, and a Catholic seat plus either a Druze or Maronite seat in Chouf. They hope that this understanding will generate significant support helping them achieve these goals, and they emphasize that having three candidates from the Bustani family, two in Chouf and one in Aley, enhances the list's strength, especially since Najy Bustani secured more than 5,200 preferential votes in the previous round when he allied with the "Socialist Party," and their participation could motivate Christians to vote for the list. They affirm that the work on this list has been ongoing for months, with meticulous electoral planning for the campaign, even though some Sunni figures have reconsidered their participation due to the turmoil within the Sunni community.
