Public health experts believe that the global pandemic will last for at least another five years, but how this ongoing crisis unfolds ultimately depends on us. A new report from the International Science Council (ISC), an international organization aimed at unifying scientific bodies worldwide, outlines three scenarios that could occur by 2027. The report was authored by a committee of 20 experts in public health, virology, economics, behavioral sciences, ethics, and sociology. While their commentary is not an attempt to predict the future, their report helps narrow down and clarify some potential actions that the world could take to lessen the pandemic's impact in the future. In the coming years, improvements in vaccine development and distribution could allow the SARS-CoV-2 virus to reach low epidemic levels, with limited and controlled transmission in most countries.
- **Scenario One**
If the percentage of fully vaccinated individuals against COVID-19 increases from around 61% of all adults to over 80% globally, many lives could be saved and the risk of emerging variants could be reduced. In this optimistic scenario, there could also be benefits for mental health, the economy, and sustainable development. Even in this scenario, the coronavirus will not disappear, but controlling its spread will become much easier. The report from the International Studies Center argues that governments have so far prolonged the pandemic by focusing on national strategies rather than international cooperation.
- **Scenario Two**
The lack of action to date suggests that the most likely outcome is that vaccination rates will be below 70% worldwide. If this does not increase, the new coronavirus could become endemic, with seasonal spikes overwhelming hospitals in many countries, requiring "updated vaccines and the use of antiviral drugs." By 2027, the ISC report found that the most likely scenario is "worsening global inequalities," with United Nations sustainable development goals delayed by a decade. The key lessons are very clear. Even if the acute phase of the pandemic comes to an end in countries with high vaccination rates, risks will remain high while many around the world lack access to an effective vaccine. New variants may emerge, and vigilance and ongoing developments in vaccines and therapeutics are essential. No political realm has been unaffected, and governments must recognize that the many effects of the pandemic will not be resolved quickly. They should not pretend that the crisis has ended simply because the death rate has decreased. For many citizens, there will be many years of difficulties and challenges ahead. Vulnerable populations, such as women, children, and the elderly, will be the most affected. Meanwhile, low-income countries will face a future of healthcare system collapse and increasing food insecurity.
- **Scenario Three**
If nationalism and populism continue to grow, the authors of the report are concerned that trust between governments and among countries and their people will further deteriorate, reducing vaccine uptake. They label this as the "lost recovery scenario." As geopolitical tensions rise, protectionist policies could severely hinder global cooperation — the opposite of what is needed to deal with an international crisis. In this worst-case scenario, less than 60% of the global population would be fully vaccinated against COVID-19, and low-income countries would have limited access to initial doses and antiviral medications. The report states: "As a result, COVID-19 remains largely uncontrolled, with its occurrence heavily recurring in parts of the world." To avoid such a bleak reality, experts say governments need to cooperate and invest in healthcare systems, integrate scientific advisory systems, and address rising disparities in education and wealth. The ISC report urges governments to resist the temptation to lower climate goals for short-term gains. Increasing climate change and environmental degradation could raise the likelihood of future pandemics in the long term. No one wants to go through this again. The report was published by the International Science Council.
