There can be talk of a "silent" electoral battle being waged by the "National Freedom Movement" and the "Marda Movement," which have been in strong conflict since 2015 over the presidential battle between their then-leaders, General Michel Aoun and former MP and Minister Sleiman Frangieh. The reconciliation achieved by "Hezbollah" between its allies last April, through an invitation from the party's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah during an Iftar dinner, had an electoral impact, notably reducing the tension between them to its lowest levels and allowing each to focus their electoral campaigns against other opponents, especially the "Lebanese Forces."
The direct electoral battle between "National Freedom" and "Marda" is concentrated in the "Third North District," which includes the regions of Batroun, Koura, Zgharta, and Bcharre. The confrontation takes on a "presidential" character as several presidential candidates are contesting there, most notably alongside Basil and Frangieh, the head of the "Forces" party, Samir Geagea, although he is not running directly in the parliamentary elections. Recently, MP Tony Frangieh, son of the head of "Marda," launched a fierce attack on the "Lebanese Forces," accusing Geagea of "riding the wave of the current presidency and then the wave of the revolution" in order to achieve personal and party interests. It is noteworthy that the two parties reached a historical reconciliation in 2018.
The apparent reduction in the intensity of the inflammatory rhetoric between "National Freedom" and "Marda" has been attributed by sources from both sides to the calming atmosphere created by the reconciliation sponsored by "Hezbollah." MP Frangieh admitted their desire to see Basil fall in the upcoming elections but added, "We are realistic because the numbers show that this is difficult." Informed sources on "Marda's" stance indicated that "what happened after the meeting between Frangieh and Basil was a transition from a phase of estrangement and rivalry to a phase of reconciliation, which currently stands at breaking the ice." They clarified in a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that electoral competition still exists with "National Freedom" as well as with "Forces" and others, "and we seek to achieve good results in the elections and try to move forward toward a fourth quota in the Third North District."
The sources believe "there is no need for the rhetoric to be tense, and campaigns do not need to be aggressive to succeed; we remain committed to our political position and do not deviate from it," noting in response to a question that "it cannot be predicted what may happen after the elections." Meanwhile, sources from "National Freedom" appear more enthusiastic about reviving the political understanding with "Marda" after the elections, asserting that "nothing prevents this at all, considering that we have always been close politically and there is no comparison between our relationship with (Marda) and their relationship with (Forces)."
The sources added to "Asharq Al-Awsat": "From the very first moment, Minister Basil was ready to meet Frangieh and restore matters to normal; what happened about a month ago should have occurred earlier, and we were prepared for reconciliation at any moment." Building on the reconciliation between the two parties to develop the relationship toward the return of political understanding seems difficult, at least in the coming months with the presidential election approaching, and neither Basil nor Frangieh shows enthusiasm to concede to the other regarding the presidential file.
Both parties deny that "Hezbollah" has approached them regarding the presidential file or the candidate it will endorse. Informed sources within the party state, "This will be resolved within the next few months," adding to "Asharq Al-Awsat": "What is certain is that the experience of a long-term vacancy in the presidency will not be repeated, as the country, in its current situation, cannot endure more vacancies in positions of responsibility."
Frangieh and Basil are described as "fierce allies" of "Hezbollah," competing presidential candidates hailing from regions close to Northern Lebanon, and deep divergences between them have prevented an electoral alliance in the 2018 elections as well as the parliamentary elections scheduled for the upcoming Sunday, May 15.
Bola Astih - Asharq Al-Awsat
