According to the new parliamentary scene, and as confirmed by council sources to "Al-Jumhuriya," it is "premature to definitively determine the shape of the new parliament's map." The map of alliances that could link certain parliamentary blocs to one another, while its outlines have begun to express themselves in the positions of some parliamentary blocs, will only become evident in its clear and final form depending on the means of overcoming certain urgent entitlements:
- **The first entitlement:** With the first sessions of the new parliament, which will constitute the initial sorting point for parliamentary directions, linked to the challenge posed by the parliamentary entitlement represented by the election of the Speaker of the Parliament, his Deputy, and the members of the Bureau of the Parliament. This session is just a few days away, where "the oldest member" Nabih Berri is expected to call for its convening shortly to elect the Speaker of the Parliament, a position in which he is the sole candidate. It has become clear in this context that some parliamentary parties have previously decided not to vote for President Berri, such as the "Lebanese Forces" and the Kataeb Party, in addition to some MPs who present themselves as sovereignty-oriented and change-oriented. In parallel, according to information from "Al-Jumhuriya," the Democratic Gathering bloc has decided to support the election of Berri, as have several independent MPs, alongside intensive consultations taking place among significant parliamentary blocs to pass this entitlement through an agreement on a "comprehensive package" that includes the election of the Speaker (Berri), his Deputy (one of the members of the Strong Lebanon bloc), and all members of the Bureau of the Parliament.
- **The second entitlement:** This is the empowerment of the Prime Minister after the completion of the new parliament's term. The binding parliamentary consultations that the President of the Republic will call for upon the new parliament entering its full term will consider the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government and the assignment of a Sunni figure to form the government, marking the second sorting point for parliamentary orientations. Notably, the name of President Najib Mikati is the most frequently mentioned for forming the new government, while some new political and parliamentary circles have begun to propose the name of former ambassador Nawaf Salam.
- **The third entitlement:** This is the formation of the government, which will constitute the third and stable sorting point. The composition of the government and the power dynamics will clearly determine which parties will form the majority or, more precisely, the ruling bloc, and which parties will constitute the opposition. It is noteworthy in this context that the prevailing tendency among the majority of political forces is to move towards a partnership government, far from the configurations of previous technocrat governments that have proven their failure and incapability in addressing the developments of the crisis as required by remedial measures and steps. It is striking that some political forces are already promoting their rejection of the formation of a partnership government or a national unity government, supporting instead the creation of a majority government representing a sovereign or a single change-oriented faction. The Lebanese Forces Party stands out as a leading proponent of such a government.
Additionally, a political reference confirmed to "Al-Jumhuriya" that the reality of the country imposes that all forces come together in a government where its components participate in the rescue process. Therefore, rejecting such a government implies a tendency to block the path to a new integrative government capable of delivering the required rescue initiatives and reform steps. It also reflects a determination to escalate and a move towards confrontation, maintaining the situation in its current complexity and confusion to serve specific goals or agendas; the natural outcome of this will accelerate the pace of collapse and exacerbate the suffering of the Lebanese. I fear that the recent revival of life and living crises and financial issues has been part of a trend towards increasing tension and deepening the crisis.
Amidst this picture, the political atmosphere generally indicates a "difficult reality" that the internal scene has reached, surpassing the deep division among political forces to the extent of mutual rejection and inability to coexist. This situation could make confusion and tension a hallmark of the upcoming phase, making the task of the new parliament more challenging, potentially transforming it from a legislative assembly into a battleground for political forces against one another. The same goes for the government, where formation is fraught with obstacles hindering it.
In the context of this division, there is a clear clash between two logics that seem to operate as parallel lines that do not intersect. The first logic rejects coexistence with "Hezbollah," believing that participating in a government that includes the party would constitute a defeat and dilute the victories claimed by sovereign and change-oriented factions during the elections, undermining all slogans, principles, and tenets launched especially during electoral campaigns. Conversely, the second logic maintains that no internal party has the authority or ability to impose a veto on any other party or to eliminate any of them, which also applies to "Hezbollah" and its opponents, as no one can negate or overlook the existence of any of the fundamental components in Lebanon.
