A few hours remain before the start of the constitutional deadline for the presidential election, while it seems that Speaker of the House Nabih Berri is in no rush to call for the first electoral sessions, contrary to what had been rumored weeks ago. This is in light of the ambiguity surrounding presidential consultations which thus far prevents progress sufficient for the election of a successor to President Michel Aoun. This has led the Speaker to focus on legislation instead.
Official nominations have jumped into the presidential arena, while others are preparing to secure their spot on the “golden list.” However, the owners of these nominations are, so far, from the category of those searching for a "miracle" to get them into the club of the presidents, knowing that they are convinced the current cycle may settle on a name that will parachute in from outside the traditional alignment, or rather outside the club of the traditional elites or senior Maronites. This is why we see them hastening to register their nominations in the public record, although some of these nominations are merely farcical.
In the background, according to "Nidaa al-Watan," there are discussions of a different kind and thinking of a different sort, but they still lack the capability to set a near date for the presidential election, especially since the lines of communication among the “senior Maronites” do not indicate that an understanding is close that would accelerate the gears of the election. So far, there is no exceptional seriousness in dealing with the impending date. It seems as though everyone is in a state of waiting and anticipation... or gathering their papers before throwing them all at once onto the negotiating and bargaining table.
Only the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, has tried to stir stagnant waters by creating a new dynamic aimed at a consensus-based rather than a confrontational outcome, meaning seeking to mix the cards and agree on a name that forms a crossroads for both camps. He has thrown a stone into the “Hezbollah” pond, along with his old ally, President Berri, and is now waiting. Deputy Taymour Jumblatt is undertaking a political tour with a consultative nature, which he began by meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi and will today lead him to Ain el-Tineh to meet with President Berri, under the title of seeking to produce a consensus president.
Those following this path say that the channels for the socialists are open in all directions, with the "Lebanese Forces," with the "changing" deputies, and there are no barriers preventing any possible communication with the "Free Patriotic Movement," in an attempt to set aside differences and look for common frameworks that allow for the election of a “unifying president,” distancing from provocative names rejected by any of the parties.
Meanwhile, the "Free Patriotic Movement" team is trying to invest what remains of available cards, including the intimidation of a constitutional fatwa that could keep President Aoun in Baabda Palace if the appointed Prime Minister Najib Mikati does not yield to the conditions of the president of the "Free Patriotic Movement," Gebran Bassil, while being aware that this project is politically unfeasible for local and international considerations that go beyond them. Mikati exchanges the same game, believing that his resistance may lead the "Free Patriotic Movement" team to comply with his government specifications. Thus, both parties insist on playing on the edge.
However, Gebran Bassil has a political agenda that goes beyond the governmental issue. He indeed wants the new Mikati government to see the light before the end of the term, and he wants to be a decisive partner in this government through the blocking third because he still bets on time, believing it can flip the table upside down to return him as a key candidate, not just a natural one.
It is naive to believe that Bassil would easily relinquish the presidential card even if he remains constrained by U.S. sanctions. He has closely followed how General Michel Aoun transitioned from being one of the most provocative candidates to one of the most unifying ones. Likely, Bassil is convinced that there is no place for impossibility in politics. Hence, those who know him believe that he will leverage all the available "reserves" in his hands until the last breath.
In this way, they see that the vacancy in the presidency may last long, and the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement" will not easily grant his blessing to another Maronite, at least in the foreseeable future. He just needs to monitor developments in the nuclear file to build on it, which may open the door for him to exit the list of U.S. sanctions. The path to Baabda Palace would become less difficult, even if the result is not guaranteed. However, presenting the presidency from Bassil's side at this moment on a "consensual" platter would have many negative repercussions on his standing and political status, as he would lose much of his influence and authority. Thus, those who know him believe he will resort to all available resources before he raises his hands in surrender before any new president.
