The border demarcation file will return to the drawers after having been a primary topic in recent weeks due to the renewed Israeli rejection following Lebanon's submission of comments and amendments to U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein. However, the internal division in Israel regarding the issue and the upcoming Israeli elections are the likely reasons for the lack of positive responses from Israel, rather than Lebanese demands. Thus, it is expected that the file will remain frozen until after the Israeli elections for a resolution.
Lebanon is not expected to backtrack on the progress it has made in the file fundamentally and will build on it once Tel Aviv has sorted out its governance after the elections and government formation. However, the return of opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu to power, should the Likud party win, could potentially complicate matters again if he maintains his rejectionist stance on the agreement, which he views as a surrender to Lebanon and Hezbollah. In that case, the file will revert to square one.
Nevertheless, the situation is not as bleak as it appears; the U.S. negotiator has not revealed all of his cards yet. The European gas crisis and the Russian escalation will also be among the factors that could expedite reaching an agreement and commencing exploration and extraction in the eastern Mediterranean region. Additionally, the return of current Prime Minister Yair Lapid to power would mean the continuation of negotiations from where they left off, although Lebanon would lose an additional month in this ongoing cycle.
