IMF: Suspension of Black Sea Agreement May Raise Grain Prices by 10-15%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that Russia's withdrawal from an agreement allowing the export of Ukrainian grains via the Black Sea could lead to an increase in global grain prices by 10 to 15 percent. The IMF added that it continues to assess the situation. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist, stated that the grain export agreement through the Black Sea was "very beneficial" in ensuring the shipment of abundant grain supplies from Ukraine, which alleviated pressure on food prices. He added, "We are still evaluating the situation, but it can be believed that the increase in grain prices will be in the range of 10 to 15 percent, which is a reasonable estimate." Gourinchas noted that the suspension of the agreement is likely to put upward pressure on prices.