Private sector institutions have begun to implement emergency plans to address the challenges that war may impose on Lebanon. Sources familiar with the matter confirmed to "Nidaa al-Watan" that these plans include relocating offices, warehouses, and operations from one area to another, along with the option of remote work in certain sectors. However, these sources express significant concern about the disruption of salaries for many employees, stating, "the situation today is very different from the 2006 war. Back then, banks were operating relatively normally, and there were deposits that could be withdrawn. The Banque du Liban was able to provide liquidity to banks when necessary. Today, private sector deposits are trapped in banks, and many private sector institutions have turned to managing their finances month by month, including employee salaries." Economic bodies have indicated that wartime conditions will force some institutions to close and suspend salary payments as long as they have no deposits and no operations with sustainable cash flows.
It is estimated that around 100,000 employees could be affected to varying degrees, depending on the size of the institutions they work for, as well as the regions and sectors impacted by the war. Initial cries from the tourism sector, which is relied on to attract foreign currency to the country, are already being heard. Pierre Achkar, President of the Union of Tourism Syndicates and Chairman of the National Tourism Council, revealed yesterday that "the Lebanese tourism sector will incur great losses due to the ongoing war in Gaza and the developments in southern Lebanon." He predicts that "tourism institutions will lose the profits they earned during the summer season in the fall." He also disclosed that "European groups that intended to visit Lebanon during October and November have naturally canceled their reservations, given the travel warnings from their countries."
A source in the tourism sector anticipates that hotel institutions will close immediately following the outbreak of war against Lebanon, and this applies to institutions in other sectors as well. On a macroeconomic level, studies indicate that preliminary loss estimates could exceed the direct and indirect losses of the 2006 war, which reached about $10 billion. Considering inflation and rising global and local prices, the expected losses in the event of war could range between $17 billion and $19 billion. The gross domestic product (GDP) would revert to levels seen in 1989-1990, when Lebanon emerged from a devastating civil war that lasted 15 years, having lost 60% of its value during the ongoing crisis that has lasted four years.
