Lebanon is floating on a hot plate... The expected security, political, and social earthquake in the coming months far exceeds the woes and misfortunes of the civil war. It is likely that the exclusion of this war is no longer possible, as we are now confronted with a regional and international equation stating that what could not be achieved through siege will be accomplished through terrorists, agents, social explosions, and sectarian conflict among members of the same sect. This statement is not made to intimidate or is the product of imagination; it is a manifestation of the reality that awaits the Lebanese in the final third of this year.
A prominent political official revealed to "Al-Liwaa" that the remaining three months will witness a comprehensive security, social, and political collapse. The politician, affiliated with a major political faction in the country, explained his statement by saying:
First: There is security information about the entry of dozens of terrorists who are classified as leaders into Lebanon, in addition to the presence of sleeping cells that have been ordered to resume their activities, many of which have been recently uncovered. The politician disclosed that the current security situation is very serious, and there is joint cooperation among all security agencies to monitor any suspicious movements. He confirmed that there are international and friendly Arab parties that have informed Lebanon about the infiltration of terrorist groups into areas adjacent to Syria in the north and Bekaa.
Second: The politician revealed that the "French-Saudi" negotiations regarding the Lebanese file, specifically the topic of the presidency, have stalled, meaning that any possibility of making a breakthrough in this file has been excluded. He indicated that the French initiative to resolve the government crisis has also failed, as Paris proposed a solution that involves maintaining the caretaker government with the addition of ministers representing civil society and others from the Lebanese Forces and Phalangist parties, ensuring the representation of all Christians in the government to assume the powers of the presidency in the event of a presidential vacuum and to prevent any constitutional violations that Aoun might resort to in the final days of his term. Here, the politician stressed that France has repackaged the same governmental proposal with some modifications and asserted that there is a possibility of making a breakthrough in the governmental file within the next two weeks.
Third: The team of the President of the Republic will not easily surrender the mandate to any incomplete government, or more accurately, one that does not meet certain specifications. Aoun has confirmed to his visitors and in the media that he does not recognize the legitimacy of this government, which means suggesting the use of popular pressure to withdraw its legitimacy and provide cover for him to exercise presidential powers even outside the Baabda Palace, against another Christian street preparing to create small and mobile wars. These data have become in the hands of more than one security agency, and some political forces friendly to the Free Patriotic Movement have warned about the dangers of provocative popular gatherings for both the Christian and Sunni streets to prevent any project of "Christian-Christian" or "Sunni-Christian" sedition.
Fourth: The politician affirmed that the file of maritime border demarcation with occupied Palestine is still stalled, and the possibility of war or military strikes remains. There is a crucial week ahead to determine the direction of events. On the sidelines, the politician noted that the issue of adjusting UNIFIL's tasks will not be implemented on the ground, as its leadership has been informed by Lebanese authorities of the need to maintain coordination with the army in any matter. However, he warned that this adjustment comes preemptively in a transparent attempt to hand over maritime monitoring tasks to UNIFIL in case a maritime border demarcation agreement is signed between Lebanon and occupied Palestine.
Fifth: The obstruction of the international community regarding the return of Syrian refugees to their country is intentional and is a bargaining chip that Washington seeks in exchange for facilitating the issue of border demarcation, along with exploiting the matter of the resettlement of Palestinians or granting them special privileges to fully integrate them into Lebanese society as part of the same settlement.
Sixth: The politician warned that the approval of the budget in its current form, combined with unpopulist decisions regarding the complete lifting of support for citizens' basic needs along with the collapse of the lira to below current levels, will lead to a popular explosion. Just imagine what will happen to Lebanon amid all these security, political, and popular collapses?
