Former national security adviser John Bolton, a staunch opponent of Trump who published an entire book aimed solely at exposing his former boss, is unhappy about the news of Trump’s trial. Has he changed his stance? Of course not; he would prefer to see Trump behind bars, but he fears that the trial could have the opposite effect, benefiting the former president, increasing his popularity, and bringing him back triumphantly to the White House. It’s not just Bolton taking this stance; even his Democratic rivals see that Trump will likely use the trial to rally his supporters and consolidate his base, thus regaining the tremendous momentum that made him president in 2017. Even his current Republican contenders, like his vice president Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, have taken a defensive stance, considering the trial to be politically motivated and a weaponizing of the law driven by revenge to eliminate Trump and prevent him from running again. They certainly wish for Trump to disappear from the scene to clear the way for themselves, but they understand that opposing him in this case will not work in their favor and will alienate a broad segment of Republicans at a time when they desperately need them.
For Trump, this trial could be a lifeline—a lifeline that was unexpected and perhaps comes at just the right moment, about a year and a half before the presidential elections. It’s seen as a lifeline because Trump’s popularity suffered following the Capitol insurrection, during which he appeared as a rogue president undeterred by the presidency's longstanding traditions, instigating the mob. This was followed by claims of election fraud, which alarmed a broad segment of the population that viewed it as a threat to their political system and the foundations of the state.
He attempted to use these events to justify that he was wronged and oppressed, claiming the election was stolen from him, but only his obsessed followers, who see him as the messianic savior, bought it. In reality, he emerged as a troubled man capable of anything to avoid being labeled a loser. He clung to these arguments, but they led him once again to lose the majority of the candidates he supported in the midterm elections. However, those elections were a referendum on his declining popularity and the flimsiness of his electoral strategy.
It's clear that his base has become exhausted and there has been a division among his supporters, particularly with emerging bright names such as the successful and charismatic Florida governor, who many Republicans see as the future of the party that Trump has torn apart. Thus, Trump in 2023 appears as a pale and worn version of Trump in 2015, until the story of porn actress Stormy Daniels emerged from the ashes, granting him the scandal and the lifeline he was waiting for. He has exploited this, as expected from the beginning, in his campaign; he cleverly announced that he would face arrest, turning himself into the leading news story.
Trump, who knows how to handle television better than any other leader and is adept at being the center of attention, will turn the trial today with all its details into fuel for regaining his glow. Such trials frighten leaders and politicians who shy away from scandals, but they are Trump’s favorite game, and he wouldn’t mind appearing as “criminal” Trump in handcuffs if it serves to enhance the image of “president” Trump, the victor. Therefore, it is expected that he will turn the trial into a long spectacle that begins today and will not end until the name of the next president is announced.
Another beneficial point for Trump this time, unlike previous instances, is that his past claims of victimhood are no longer coherent and have quickly fallen flat, but this time is different. The argument of persecution and political prosecution is strong and convincing to many, and according to the latest polls, there is a public divide over it, though the majority of Republicans stand behind him. Even among non-supporters, there is a belief that his exoneration would be a nightmare. This is the first time a U.S. president has been dragged into court like a criminal. We are witnessing a new, unprecedented political historical scene, and it is undoubtedly the first chapter in an exciting and lengthy drama.
