Communications continue among regional and international powers to schedule a quadripartite meeting in Paris, which will include the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Information indicates that the meeting will take place before the end of this month or in the first week of February, lasting several days, to discuss the specifications for the new President of the Republic and the formation of a government. Sources in Paris tell "Al-Markaziyya" that the discussion will be limited to humanitarian aid, unless developments change the situation before then. What is the significance of this meeting, and is a change in the Lebanese crisis expected from it?
Dr. Sami Nader, director of the "Mashreq Institute for Strategic Affairs," asserts to "Al-Markaziyya" that “when a meeting is held concerning Lebanon, the issue of electing a president will be the primary dish on the negotiation table, as Lebanon is a country without a president. If this vacuum persists, Lebanon will cease to exist. In the absence of a government formation and the procrastination in electing a president, the country is heading towards disintegration. If the vacuum continues, Lebanon will be unable to make appointments in administrations and public institutions, leading to the dissolution of positions in the state. This was highlighted by Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rai, who warned of a 'plan being prepared to create a vacuum in Maronite and Christian positions.' Therefore, what we are witnessing is not merely a presidential vacuum but an intentional draining of the republic built on a solid system. If the vacuum persists, we will face the dissolution of the republic; thus, when four countries gather for a meeting of this level, the presidential issue can only be the main topic.”
Nader points out that “the main problem, which everyone avoids discussing, is Hezbollah and the ongoing conflict with Iran that obstructs the functioning or return of the state to its regular order. The group affiliated with this axis still insists on its conditions for a consensus president, effectively calling for the sidelining of elections and constitutional provisions, as they want to impose their viewpoint. Either everyone aligns with their interpretation, or the matters will not be orderly, leading to obstruction. Strangely, for example, the Speaker of the Parliament can be elected in a single session or by majority without requiring consensus, and objections are not allowed, while the election of the president is obstructed under the pretext of consensus, solidifying the veto of the minority.”
“Hope is not lost, as no tree has reached its Lord. There is a window through the Paris meeting, and in the current balance of power, many countries still defend Lebanon in its existing form. If the vacuum continues, this form cannot be maintained.”
