Beer is one of the oldest beverages known to humanity, having been fermented in the ancient Near East thousands of years ago. During the Middle Ages, its production was developed in monasteries across Western and Central Europe, and by the 21st century, it had transformed into a massive industry valued at hundreds of billions of dollars. However, its fate, much like the beverage itself, is threatened by climate change, which is depleting water resources and reducing barley yields—one of its primary plant components—due to rising temperatures and drought. Meanwhile, the industry is attempting to raise awareness about the issue and eliminate the threats to its resources, although it is too early to claim serious successes.
Humanity consumes nearly 200 billion liters of beer each year, making it the most popular alcoholic beverage by volume. In the next five years, some forecasts suggest that the market size may approach one trillion dollars. Nevertheless, beer production, like many other economic sectors, is now facing risks posed by climate change. Beer production has already become a serious challenge for overall food security, given that rising temperatures, frequent floods and droughts, and increased insect pests related to warming are all impacting agriculture. Water resources have become scarcer, and every degree increase in average temperature reduces the yields of key crops for humanity, including wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans by about 3-7.4 percent.
Barley, along with other plants like hops that cannot withstand extreme heat, is also threatened. Barley changes its characteristics (for example, in terms of protein content percentage) even with a slight increase in temperature, which affects its taste among other factors. However, the main concern is the yield size. In Europe, which accounts for 60 percent of global barley supplies, production decreased by 12 percent between 1964 and 2015 due to weather conditions. In lean years, the usual proportion of harvested sizes shifts: the share of grain used for brewing decreases as more is diverted for animal feed. Typically, about 17 percent of the barley harvest is used for beer, but in severe weather conditions, this can be reduced to 13 percent, according to calculations made by scientists from the U.S., the U.K., Mexico, and China in 2017. This trend is expected to continue into the future. Feeding livestock in tough years takes precedence over beer production, and based on historical data and various climate models, scientists estimate that in especially bad weather years, beer consumption may decrease by 18 percent and average prices could double.
In the future, as the climate crisis worsens and extreme weather events become more frequent, the necessary components for brewing beer may become unavailable altogether. To illustrate this thesis and draw attention to the issue, the American company New Belgium Brewing produced a beer in 2021 called Torched Earth Ale. According to the Washington Post, the beer could be summarized in one word: "gross." Instead of barley, it utilized millet and buckwheat, which are drought-resistant, and evoked memories of wildfires with a smoky aroma, achieving bitterness through the use of dandelion, known for its ability to grow anywhere. Every sip was intended to remind consumers that if immediate action is not taken to address the climate problem, the familiar taste of their favorite drink could become a thing of the past.
