Intense ambiguity overshadowed all "axes" of the Lebanese entitlements yesterday, making it extremely difficult to predict any resolution in any of them in the days leading up to the end of October, which marks the conclusion of the Aoun era. While the presidential and governmental entitlements appear increasingly far from the possibility of electing a president within the constitutional timeframe or overcoming the obstacles placed by the presidency on the formation of a modified government to be announced before the end of the term, the fate of the maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel does not seem any better. It has been three days since Israel rejected the Lebanese amendments to the agreement drafted by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein, and realistically, no positive factor has emerged except for the American intention to proceed with efforts to revive the agreement and prevent its collapse. However, the hopes of reviving the agreement and passing it before November, which is the date for the general elections in Israel, have dwindled greatly. The pressing question among everyone is whether suspending or collapsing the agreement would lead to an explosive confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, or if this risk is not inevitable.
In any case, many facts may crystallize revealing some hidden and public developments related to this file. Yesterday, U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein continued his communications with the Lebanese side to discuss Israel's response to the Lebanese remarks. Information indicated that Lebanon received the Israeli comments on the U.S. proposal and on the Lebanese observations, and discussions are ongoing regarding everything pertaining to this agreement. It was noted that communications intensified yesterday between mediator Hochstein and both the Lebanese and Israeli sides to address each party's observations.
Remarkably, France has entered the scene of the demarcation file developments on the eve of a visit by French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna to Beirut, starting next Thursday. The French Foreign Ministry confirmed yesterday that France is actively contributing to the U.S. mediation aimed at reaching an agreement on the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel. It stated that the agreement would benefit both countries and their peoples and could contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region. The French Foreign Ministry called on all parties involved to play their role.
Axios reported an American official saying, "We have made progress in the maritime border negotiations between Israel and Lebanon," and mentioned "the exchange of new drafts to bridge gaps in the maritime border agreement." Conversely, Israeli media quoted Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz as saying last night that "the maritime border agreement with Lebanon is good, and I hope it will be signed soon." He reiterated that "the maritime border agreement enhances regional stability and reduces Iran’s influence in Lebanon," explaining that "the ball is in the Lebanese court." He added, "I estimate that there is a possibility to sign the agreement with Lebanon soon."
He continued: "Israel is ready to reach an agreement and is determined to protect its assets." He announced the start of "testing the Karish field platform tomorrow as a final step towards gas production," threatening that "any sabotage act by Hezbollah against the Karish field will harm all of Lebanon" and that "the Israeli army is prepared for any escalation." He pointed out that "(Hezbollah) tried to challenge the 'Karish' platform using naval vessels, not just through the launch of drones." While affirming that negotiations with Lebanon continue, he stressed, "If we complete an agreement, it will be good for all parties and contribute to regional stability," adding: "I have directed the army to prepare for escalation following Nasrallah's threats. It is clear to Lebanon that if we are attacked for any reason, our response will be firm." He continued: "I do not want to put pressure on the Israelis, and the directives are to prepare for escalation." The Israeli channel reported that the Israeli security leadership has authorized the Energy company to begin examining the possibility of operating the Karish field.
