It is difficult to rely on Israel to fulfill its commitments, as it has repeatedly disregarded many international laws and violated international norms throughout its history, with Lebanon bearing the brunt of wars, massacres, and continuous violations. The Israeli political forces did not reach a consensus to support the border demarcation agreement with Lebanon, even though it was approved by the Knesset and ratified by Yair Lapid's government. However, the leader of the Likud party, Benjamin Netanyahu, attacked this agreement, labeling it as a surrender agreement, even declaring openly, "I will deal with it as I dealt with the Oslo Agreement if I win."
Netanyahu has returned to power with strength, securing a majority in the Israeli legislative elections, which raises legitimate concern regarding what he might do and how capable he is of evading the demarcation agreement or disrupting oil exploration operations on the Lebanese side. The caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati seemed reassured, considering that "U.S. guarantees will protect the maritime border agreement with Israel in the event of Netanyahu's victory, as the agreement is in the hands of the United Nations, and Lebanon is committed to this agreement deposited in the UN, and we do not believe that anyone can budge a fraction on this issue."
What room does Israel have for maneuvering in this matter? Oil and gas law specialist Lama Hariz emphasized that "the demarcation agreement, according to international laws and maritime law, is binding on both Lebanon and Israel, especially since it is documented with the UN. In a precedent on maritime demarcation, Israel insisted on its right to line number 1 under the pretext that it documented its borders in 2011 with the UN, but in reality, Israel has become accustomed to ignoring international laws and norms unless they serve its interests, with many examples of Israel's violations of international laws and norms as well as its commitments under the pretext of national security."
Hariz added, "Today, there is great fear that Israel will only recognize what suits it from this agreement, meaning hindering exploration activities in the Qana field by destabilizing its agreement with the 'Total' company, while maintaining its control over the floating line and the undemarcated area between point B1 and the starting point of demarcation, and evading recognition of the entire line 23 under the pretext of protecting the Karish field and thus its national security."
However, Hariz pointed out that "American sponsorship remains the only guarantee for Lebanon for Israel to adhere to the demarcation agreement, but the question arises as to how far the United States will go to meet Israel's demands regarding the nuclear agreement with Iran to appease Netanyahu after the midterm elections."
Thus, all eyes will be on Tel Aviv and the gamble Netanyahu may undertake, or rather the folly he could embroil himself in; for all international and UN guarantees are on one side, and Hezbollah's drones are on the other. The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, declared that he is ready at any moment when Lebanon's interests are compromised to withdraw from his commitments and go to war, and evading the demarcation agreement would certainly be tantamount to declaring war.
So, will Netanyahu, buoyed by the victory, beat the drums of war with Lebanon?
