External interest in the Lebanese file remains below the level that would drive it towards a resolution. Meanwhile, everyone recognizes that the Lebanese cannot produce solutions on their own amid a severe division that puts the country in a state of fatal stagnation. There is a lack of any internal attempts to bridge the differences for rescue, particularly since the majority of political forces have conceded that a president cannot be elected until the picture of ongoing developments in the Middle East becomes clearer.
From this standpoint, it appears that the presidential election has completely slipped from the hands of the Lebanese. Everyone is awaiting some development from the upcoming summit, which will take place in just a few hours between U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron during his visit to the United States. American diplomatic sources have confirmed to "Akhbar Al-Yawm" that the two presidents will agree on the specifications and characteristics of the next president of Lebanon and will establish sovereign foundations for the presidential personality, ensuring they do not concede on this matter. Both sides will also continue to support the military and security institutions to maintain a minimum level of stability.
The same sources indicate that the outcome of the Biden-Macron meeting is expected to give the green light to the French to operate freely in Lebanon. According to the information available, the sources discount the possibility of a presidential surprise following the Washington summit, as the file cannot be completed without pressure from both the American and French sides on the Iranians, and without conceding or yielding to any settlement that would lead to the election of a president from the resistance axis. Both sides are betting on the existing regime in Tehran conceding at least some of its cards to the West, including the Lebanese card, on the premise that it is not in the best condition, facing a popular uprising to alleviate the suffering that has persisted for decades under the Supreme Leader's regime.
In any case, external factors always play a decisive role in important electoral milestones, especially presidential ones, amid a “volatile competition” orchestrated from Tehran, whose influence remains constant under various circumstances, whether ordinary or extraordinary. Today, there is a near consensus among influential external countries to pressure the Lebanese parliament before proceeding to elect a president who may extend the term of former President Michel Aoun.
