Scenarios for the Anticipated Israeli Strike on Lebanon

Military analyst on Channel 13, Or Heller, stated that Israel has three options in response to Hezbollah after accusing it of killing 12 children and teenagers in a missile attack on the Golan Heights the previous Saturday.

According to Heller, the first scenario is a "measured air response, possibly targeting Hezbollah’s weapon depots and gathering areas," noting that "such a response does not lead to human losses for Hezbollah, allowing it to contain the situation and prevent an all-out war."

The second scenario involves "a stronger response, such as targeting Hezbollah officials and field leaders, and expanding the geographical scope of the attacks." Heller suggested that this "could lead to a strong retaliation from Hezbollah and an exchange of strikes, particularly in the north, under what could be termed combat days that might last several days until the situation calms down."

Heller deemed the third scenario as the least likely, which entails an "Israeli decision to take advantage of the catastrophe that occurred in Majdal Shams in the Golan to change the rules of the game in Lebanon and initiate an opening strike by Israel against numerous targets of Hezbollah and the Lebanese state, including a ground entry up to the Litani River, as well as attacks in the famous suburbs and Beirut, targeting Lebanese objectives. This scenario necessarily represents a comprehensive war."

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