Since the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gibran Bassil, declared after the first Cabinet session last Monday that the real crisis is not between him and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, but with his "controllers," it is a grave mistake to claim there are signs of a Maronite-Sunni strife. If Bassil's description holds true, Mikati's "controller" is not Sunni. It is well-known that Bassil's astonishment at the collapse of the "honest promise" has placed the crisis in a different arena that might lead to Maronite-Shiite strife. This was reflected in the exchanged statements between the media relations departments of Hezbollah and the Central Committee for Media and Communication in the Free Patriotic Movement, which contained indicators and evidence that merit serious consideration.
Moreover, while the Sunni reaction, characterized by sectarian mobilization at the highest level in several years, followed the discussion about a state of "Sunni frustration," was unfounded, the pursuit of support for Prime Minister Mikati seems an uncalculated gamble. Regardless of the circumstances that led to his recent initiative calling for a Cabinet session amid ambiguous conditions, which can only be interpreted on the basis of "support your brother, whether he is wronged or the wrongdoer," the former president of the republic, General Michel Aoun's, recourse to Bkerke to "entrust His Beatitude the Patriarch with the current situation" expresses a reaction that avoids Mikati and the Sunni community while targeting Hezbollah's performance, as he spoke briefly about "gnawed rights," considering what has transpired as a "blow to the Charter and the Constitution."
Against this backdrop, neutral political sources told "Al-Markazia" that what the country witnessed in the past two days accurately reflects a game of "billiards" during the World Cup. The accusation by the leader of the Orange Movement against Mikati of seeking support from the "Shiite duo" shortly after the government session is not a secret and has been exposed, but it also backfired on him when Mikati resorted to the same weapon, clearly and openly from the book fair platform, reminding his critics of the time he enjoyed such support, and that no one could confront him.
Apart from this equation, the mutual accusations opened a negative side window that struck at the core of the relationship between the movement and Hezbollah. As the conflict between Mikati and Bassil cooled, another confrontation ignited on the Mirna Chalouhi - Southern Suburbs front, under the media references from both sides and via social media, despite the efforts made by wise figures to put an end to it and emphasize the importance of keeping any dialogue between them, no matter how intense, underground and within closed walls to prevent any repercussions that could lead to a stage where it becomes difficult to reconstruct what such encounters might result in.
Based on the above, the same sources add in their reading of the future developments that the coming days will witness a covert movement that no one will detect aimed at reconnecting what has been severed and keeping matters confined to what has occurred until today while minimizing its damage as much as possible until transitioning from this phase to another in hopes of reaching an understanding on subsequent steps. This comes with consideration of the difficulties that any mediator might face unless others benefit from it by paying the price that satisfies the desires of both parties with the existence of a "scapegoat." This would necessitate their retreat a few steps back regardless of how many allies and allies' allies may be affected, especially since the list of potential casualties has grown, unless a final rift occurs that both sides must face the consequences of, costing the country dearly.
Thus, the sources state that the Lebanese must prepare for an unprecedented phase of political and constitutional chaos unless there are ready alternatives to compensate for the losses of both parties. This matter has not yet been reflected by the concerned authorities and remains under a daunting and significant ambiguity. However, some are betting on the initiative of Speaker of the House Nabih Berri calling for dialogue to avert the consequences of any sharp division, especially since the Lebanese arena cannot withstand significant shocks, as there will be no party to benefit from them.
Therefore, is it conceivable that what Berri warns of in his call for dialogue and consultation could lead to an early awakening before the worst occurs? If the Lebanese absorb such a scenario, it is expected that everyone should make considerable sacrifices that could lead to convergence and understanding on the specifications for a unifying president capable of reuniting those who have diverged and divided based on what the international community is trying to convince the Lebanese of, insisting that they "help themselves before asking for help from others from all corners of the world, near and far."
In light of this, the ongoing "billiard" game seems to replicate, at certain points, the game of "Russian roulette," where it cannot be determined who will be the victim of the single bullet capable of exploding the head of any of them in advance, leading to significant questions about what is expected from future events.
