It is no longer a secret that chaos is beginning to sever the fabric of Lebanese society and destroy what remains of its unifying institutions. The Lebanese problem has deteriorated to a point that many anticipated, reaching a stalemate that does not lead to a solution without external intervention, especially given the disintegration of the state and the inability of internal parties to craft agreements, mainly due to the absence of substantial alternatives for change. Everyone is now convinced that there are no internal settlement components under the ongoing conflict, necessitating external leverage, the conditions for which have yet to be met, despite the efforts being made by ambassadors of the Paris meeting with political forces. This has revealed the depth of the impasse and the inability to find common ground regarding the election of a consensus president, amid escalating positions, particularly what "Hezbollah" has indicated through its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who rejected the imposition of a president from abroad on the Lebanese through pressures and chaos. This message indicates that negotiations regarding the election and settlement are between them and external entities.
The crisis is nearing explosion, and no internal party is capable of launching unifying initiatives, leading to entrenched chaos amid a collapse that is beginning to take dangerous dimensions. Everyone is now betting on their external references to bring about a breach that could adjust the existing balance of power, which cannot happen militarily. External diplomatic circles indicate that unless a breakthrough occurs in the path of elections and settlements, the country is headed toward a significant crash or shock that could have regional repercussions. The indicator is clear based on Nasrallah's statements, which overlook his internal struggles as the reason for the crisis, escalating against the external, specifically the United States. He stated, "If the Americans and their allies are planning chaos and the collapse of the country, I say to them that you will lose everything in Lebanon, and you planned something similar in the past and lost." For him, the chaos is targeting the resistance's environment rather than the country, and "you should expect chaos throughout the region."
Nasrallah's escalation and threats indicate that matters in the country have reached the final turning point before a crash, but this phase may extend while waiting for the crystallization of international pressure, which has become the only way out of the quagmire. Meanwhile, the arena remains left to the competing forces, which are unable to produce a solution, instead sinking deeper into conflict and quotas at the expense of the Lebanese and their interests. This raises questions about who is pushing things in the country toward explosion, even though it still resists being dragged into military civil conflict. However, the rapid deterioration and the accompanying chaos could lead to a shock that drives a change in course, regardless of whether it is internal or external.
The accelerating decline leads to the erasure of the state and the absence of its features, as political and sectarian forces line up in their environments, awaiting changes that could alter the balance of power without being swept into civil war. This has its reasons in light of the imbalance in capabilities, as no internal party possesses the surplus power held by "Hezbollah." Yet, amidst the collapse, demands for federalism or at least sectarian entrenchment are rising. The party, which has started to declare its positions directly, seems determined to engage in the presidential election battle with its candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, against what it calls "chaos," accusing the United States of inciting it. Even if Nasrallah spoke of a settlement, it is a settlement based on negotiating with the external first, then to the internal, which means solidifying "Hezbollah's" reference as a decision-maker in the election and settlement in general.
The chaos that Lebanon experienced over the past two weeks and is poised to extend confirms that the country is heading for a shock or a significant crash. A well-informed political source notes that "Hezbollah" waited to announce its position on maritime border negotiations before raising the stakes by threatening to bomb Karish and launching drones over the oil field, only to retract and agree to the deal reached between Lebanon and Israel through U.S. mediation. Today, it issues threats and raises the stakes again regarding war and chaos; while the circumstances are different, they are linked to internal Lebanese affairs, but their intersections are clear, namely escalating the regional situation to gain internal advantages in negotiations and also to relieve pressure on itself. Despite the escalation, "Hezbollah" is unable to ignite a war, especially on maritime borders, as the demarcation agreement has placed guarantees that cannot be overridden. Any escalation lacks internal or external cover, and it knows that war could increase chaos and not lead to addressing the economic and social conditions or relieving pressure on what it calls "the resistance's environment." Thus, the escalation seems to be a message to the outside to impose a specific direction inside, and to tell the countries at the Paris meeting that the presidency and settlement pass through "Hezbollah" and through negotiation and agreement with it.
In the coming days, we will witness an expansion of chaos against the backdrop of further collapses, alongside rising tensions before a shock pushes toward a settlement on the ruins of the country. Even if international intervention is not inclined to change the existing situation, and no serious movement is noted in the phases of major crises in Lebanon, especially in 2005, 2008, and 2015, amid all the crises that stemmed from the Syrian war in 2011 and reflected its repercussions in Lebanon. In contrast to "Hezbollah," there are no forces capable of enforcing a settlement or bringing a candidate to the presidency, which is something international forces, particularly the United States, are aware of, having not publicly endorsed any presidential candidate. Meanwhile, leaks about imposing sanctions on the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, followed by their denial fall within the framework of gauging Lebanese reactions, although they have a political function related to exploring "Hezbollah's" position and influence on the overall Lebanese path.
Scenes of chaos will recur without leading to an internal war, as "Hezbollah" is the only party that possesses a surplus of armed power, while international movements will continue in line with the results of the Paris meeting without pressure, and thus far, they have not succeeded in creating a breakthrough in the presidential file. The longer the crisis stretches and intensifies, the more Nasrallah's equation will solidify after his threats to entrench Sleiman Frangieh as a candidate against the chaos, despite the rejection of the countries in the Paris meeting, particularly Saudi Arabia, of his name, as he is perceived as a resistance candidate, even though he has stated that he does not belong to any axis. Meanwhile, the Lebanese situation continues to drift deeper into chaos and expand toward civil explosions that leave no traces of the state or of Lebanon as a nation.
