Recent leaks of highly classified Pentagon documents online, described as a significant security breach, reveal the extensive efforts made by U.S. intelligence to gather information about key partners, adversaries, and competitors, including China. According to an article published by CNN's Hong Kong bureau, written by China Affairs correspondent Simone McCarthy, many of the leaked documents are related to the battlefield in Ukraine and Russian war efforts. Some documents show the extent of U.S. infiltration into the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Russian "Wagner Group," suggesting that intelligence officials are mobilizing around China, which Washington considers its most significant long-term challenge to the international order.
CNN reviewed 53 leaked documents, most of which were prepared between mid-February and early March. U.S. officials confirm that these documents are authentic and indicate that they were compiled by the Joint Chiefs of Staff's intelligence arm, known as "G2." The reviewed documents contain more references to Russian activities than to China, while monitoring potential Chinese involvement in the war in Ukraine.
One of the key references concerning China relates to U.S. long-standing concerns that the close strategic partner of Russia could support Kremlin war efforts in Ukraine. One document states that China could use Ukrainian strikes on deep Russian targets “as an opportunity to portray NATO as the aggressor” and may increase its support for Russia if it views the attacks as significant. It states that “China would respond more forcefully and is likely to increase the volume and scope of military materiel it wishes to provide to Russia if the Ukrainian strikes hit a location of high strategic value or appeared to target senior Russian leaders.” Moreover, it indicates that “Beijing might view a significant Ukrainian assault using U.S. or NATO member weapons as a sign that Washington was directly responsible for escalating the conflict,” providing “additional justification for China to supply Russia with lethal aid,” according to the document.
McCarthy noted that the leaked Pentagon documents continued to circulate on social media despite urgent national security concerns. U.S. officials have repeatedly and publicly warned Beijing of the consequences of aiding Russia in its war effort, particularly concerning its previous announcement of possibly providing “lethal” aid to the Kremlin. CNN stated it reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry for comments regarding the bolstering of economic ties with Russia over the past year, but received no response.
The documents reveal that U.S. officials expressed reluctance to provide Ukraine with long-range missile systems due to fears that Kyiv would use them to strike within Russia. However, Ukraine pledged not to use the U.S.-provided weapons for that purpose. They also did not comment on their involvement in the limited number of attacks that occurred within Russia or the Crimea Peninsula, which has been occupied by Russia since the war began. Additionally, Beijing did not publicly address the document leak, except for some coverage in local media, including an article in the overseas edition of "People's Daily."
The article noted: "In recent years, despite scandals involving U.S. surveillance of its allies leading to several instances of international public outcry, the U.S. still seems to persist in repeating this act."
Intelligence regarding China shows the extent of U.S. surveillance on Chinese weapons development and maritime activities. One document mentions a flight test conducted on February 25 for the "DF-27 developed" missile, describing it as a multi-role hypersonic gliding vehicle from the medium-range ballistic missile class. The document states that the weapon has a "high likelihood" of penetrating the U.S. missile defense system. It noted that these missiles equipped with hypersonic glide vehicles could travel five times faster across space and maneuver in flight, making them nearly impossible to intercept, according to experts. China is considered one of the most advanced countries globally regarding hypersonic weapon development programs.
The documents also included information on how countries interact with China regarding signals intelligence, or collecting intelligence by intercepting signals. McCarthy explains: “Signals intelligence includes intercepted communications broadly defined by the NSA as intelligence derived from signals and electronic systems used by foreign targets, like communication and radar systems.”
One document attributed to an intelligence report indicated that the Jordanian Foreign Ministry planned in late February to reassure Beijing about its interest in maintaining an economic relationship after Beijing complained of a lack of Chinese company involvement in launching a "5G" network in the country.
In another document, it shows that Nicaragua was negotiating with a Chinese company to build a deep-water port on its Caribbean coast, attributing this information to signals intelligence. The same document indicated, without providing a source, that Nicaragua “might consider a Chinese maritime access offer in exchange for economic investment.” It added that China did not announce its aspirations for overseas bases or military access in the country.
McCarthy noted that the U.S. Department of Justice is still investigating how the documents reached social media and is assessing their potential impact on the U.S., its allies, and partners.
