U.S. Central Bank Official: Timing of Rate Cut Approaches

Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that "the time for the U.S. central bank to lower interest rates is approaching, but uncertainty about the economic path makes it unclear when borrowing costs may be cut in the short term." He added, "I believe the current data is consistent with achieving a soft landing (leading the economy to safety), and I will look for data in the next two months to bolster this view," in a text of a speech he will deliver before an event at the Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City. He continued, "While I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I think we are getting closer to the time when easing monetary policy will be justified." Waller noted that economic growth is now moving toward a "more moderate pace" with significant improvement in labor market balance amid moderate inflation. However, he stated that the uncertainty surrounding inflation performance in the coming months makes it difficult to know when the U.S. central bank may cut the overnight rates from the current range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent. He mentioned that there are three varying scenarios that the central bank faces in the coming months. He went on to say that the most "optimistic... but not major" scenario expects continued steady easing of inflation pressures, and under that path, "I can envision a rate cut in the not-too-distant future." He clarified that under a more likely scenario, inflation easing would be more uneven, which could raise questions about the U.S. central bank's ability to move sustainably toward the 2 percent target. He added, "In this case, a rate cut in the near future is less certain." The least likely but possible scenario would be a resurgence of inflation.