After months of coldness that marked the relationship between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, due to the constitutional status of the caretaker government discussions, the presidential file, and the party's nomination of Sleiman Frangieh, it seems that the waters of this relationship are gradually returning to their course. However, a well-informed source confirmed to "Warda" that things will not return to how they were before, as the circumstances have changed, the phase of the "Mar Mikhael Agreement" has ended, and the visit by a Hezbollah delegation headed by Wafiq Safa to the head of the Movement, MP Jibran Bassil, recently does not indicate that the relationship has fully healed, as it has experienced significant turbulence. The ongoing interactions between the supporters and affiliates of both parties on social media platforms serve as clear evidence of this.
This relationship now requires reconstruction or a new formulation of the Mar Mikhael understanding, based on the premise that the current framework is no longer suitable to accompany the current political phase, especially since Bassil is well aware of the necessity of distinguishing himself from the party on many national decisions and stances that please the Christian community, which has lost a portion that does not reassure the future of the "Orange Movement," and he is thus compelled to strengthen his local base.
In any case, Bassil publicly announced, "We have resumed dialogue with Hezbollah with the mindset of finding a solution without imposing preconditions. This dialogue, which has started positively, we hope will intensify to achieve results that benefit all Lebanese, not just one team at the expense of another."
Although both parties agreed not to leak what was discussed in their meeting, a source confirmed to "Warda" that the discussion did not delve into the details of contentious issues but remained in the general framework aimed at calming nerves and regulating the outbursts among their supporters on social media. It is noteworthy that the relationship between Hezbollah and the Movement is not entirely severed; communication between Bassil and Safa has continued away from the spotlight, trying to keep the disagreement limited to the presidential file. Following the session on June 14 aimed at electing a president, Bassil ensured to clarify his position regarding the dialogue, which was understood to imply that he had preconditions for any dialogue while affirming that his stance on Frangieh's nomination is final.
However, when it was mentioned that the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian would propose a dialogue table to discuss a third presidential option, Bassil’s and the party's stances appeared aligned in welcoming the dialogue more than the opposition did, especially concerning the name of former minister Jihad Azour. Similar positions emerged regarding important files and upcoming appointments, such as the appointment of a new governor for the Central Bank of Lebanon and military council appointments, which could serve as a foundation for restoring what was severed. Nonetheless, the path remains in its early stages, and no one can forecast the future direction of the relationship.
An informed source stated that the meeting did not yield significant results, but it is still premature to discuss a qualitative development in the relationship. The renewed communication contributes to stopping or curbing the deterioration of the relationship and denies a complete severance, acknowledging that matters are moving towards worse repercussions due to conflicting choices. It is crucial to point out that internal balances play a role in the upcoming dynamics, from electing a president to government sessions to appointments. Thus, the party feels the need to maintain channels of communication with the Movement.
As for Bassil, he now feels that his Christian cover for the party's weapon has yielded more harm than benefits for him. He observes that the party has its regional and international interests and strategic options. Therefore, it is a collection of immediate interests that necessitate rapprochement, as each side has its benefits. In this regard, the relationship will remain limited, contingent on the necessities of both parties' interests.
Many agree that the meeting, which will be followed by other meetings in hopes of re-agreeing on some issues and enhancing communication at the grassroots level, is noteworthy. A source close to the party described the meeting, which occurred after a long hiatus for the first time in 17 years due to the significant divergence over the presidency, as a breakthrough, laying the groundwork for calm discussions about contentious issues, including the presidential file without preconditions. This was Hezbollah's condition to resume communication, as Bassil had previously set the condition to abandon support for Frangieh before starting any dialogue.
Both parties are keen on maintaining at least a minimal friendship and are striving to rebuild trust between them. Multiple meetings have taken place characterized by clarity and transparency, addressing issues as they are. While a source from the Movement asserts that former president Michel Aoun distances himself from the discussions between the Movement and the party, leaving the matter to his son-in-law Bassil, it is simultaneously aimed at re-formulating his understanding with Hezbollah based on new developments and changing political reality.
The tasks of forming a joint committee between the two parties are aimed at developing, modifying, or canceling some of the clauses outlined in their understanding. If the current situation indicates that the party will not abandon its candidate Frangieh and is not looking for a "Plan B," and if it also indicates that Bassil finds himself compelled to alter his political conduct and differentiate himself from the party to rally the Christian street, then the relationship is moving towards restoration for the sake of maintaining face, or organizing rather than rebuilding on solid and stable foundations as it had been for 17 years, according to one observer.
