The Democratic Party and U.S. media believed that Robert Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate, would pose a serious threat to President Joe Biden's reelection. However, recent polls are revealing that Kennedy is more popular among Republicans than Democrats. There are increasing signs that Kennedy and other third-party candidates may not impact Biden's chances; in fact, they might attract more of Trump's supporters, according to the Washington Post.
The results from a Marist College poll show a favorable outcome for Biden, where he leads with 51 percent compared to Trump's 48 percent. But when accounting for third-party candidates—Kennedy, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornell West—Biden's lead increases to five percentage points, surpassing the poll's margin of error of 3.6 points. NBC News conducted a similar poll on Sunday, showing that while Biden lagged by two points against Trump (44-46), he led by two points (39-37) when third-party candidates were included. Both results fall within the margin of error, but notably, there is a four-point shift favoring Biden when third-party candidates are considered, which has not been seen before.
Fifteen percent of Trump supporters back Robert Kennedy, while 7 percent of those who chose Biden support Kennedy as well. Kennedy's appeal among right-leaning voters seems significantly stronger compared to his image among left-leaning voters. The Marist poll indicates that Kennedy attracts slightly more actual Republicans (10 percent) compared to Democrats (8 percent), but notably pulls more from independents leaning towards Trump. A right-leaning poll last week showed Trump's lead shrinking from four points to two when third-party candidates were included.
Generally, as general elections approach, voters are drawn toward the two main party candidates because they have a realistic chance of winning, while third-party candidates fade. Both sides are likely to spend the next six months trying to associate Kennedy with the opposing party's politics. Last week, Biden appeared with members of the Kennedy family who have distanced themselves from their relative's campaign. At least some Republicans have begun to express concerns about Kennedy's influence and have attacked the candidate who threatens Trump's chance of returning to the White House.
