Lebanese people will not need fortune-tellers to predict the outcome of the dialogue initiatives. The internal reality, which is turned upside down and divided against itself, and fragmented between political components that oppose each other, while others see it as a last chance to crystallize a presidential solution, has already determined its failure in advance. Unless a miracle occurs that contradicts all expectations, breaks the logic of obstruction, and drags the obstructors, against their will, to the presidential ballot box. This is what a vast majority of Lebanese citizens wish for, as they reject being marginalized or usurped by components, parties, or immature parliamentary movements seeking a position and role, lacking even a foothold in the political realm.
Next week is crucial; it will be a decisive moment to determine the final direction of the presidential crisis. This could either lead to the election of a president for the republic or fall into scenarios that are described as catastrophic looming on the horizon, which would subject Lebanon and the Lebanese to severe consequences.
However, the prevailing environment internally, with its deep contradictions and clashing visions, does not encourage positive assumptions or breakthroughs in the dialogue or presidential walls. In this atmosphere, Le Drian will enter next week once again into the theatrical performance of political absurdity. There are those who assume he will confront the protagonists of the presidential narrative in hopes of winning the challenge and removing obstacles from what he calls the dialogue process he seeks to launch. Yet, insiders who are closely familiar with the essence of his mission and what he brings have a different opinion; they consider it naive to believe that his mission is paved with hopes. The reliable information they possess confirms that he does not come with a magic wand but has only contradictory answers he received to his message to the parliamentary parties, which he will echo in hopes that these parties will enter into presidential dialogue. Thus, despite the significance of his mission to him, it does not impose an obligation on any party to comply or respond to the goal it aims for.
According to this information, the comprehensive dialogue that Le Drian desires is unlikely, and the initiative to call for a dialogue with whoever shows up is more than unlikely, in light of the objectionable stances announced by some parties, specifically the "Lebanese Forces" and some political and parliamentary parties grouped under what is called the sovereignty banner, as well as the reservations and conditions expressed by other parties such as the "Free Patriotic Movement". This situation may force Le Drian to adopt another dialogue path, gradually moving from comprehensive dialogue to bilateral dialogues with all parties, which certainly will not yield the desired outcomes of his mission.
Despite this pessimistic outlook, which presumes the prior failure of Le Drian's mission, responsible political sources are cautious in expressing a definitive stance, though they embed this failure as the most likely outcome. They told "Al-Jumhouria": "It is true that the stances of some parties do not bode well, but we just need to wait for what Le Drian will propose. I am certain that he did not come to fail or leave Lebanon empty-handed, otherwise, he would have never come, especially as he receives direct support from French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. I do not believe this push is leaning towards failure."
What is notable in this context is that diplomatic sources revealed that the Quintet Committee is accompanying what they described as "its initiative" led by Le Drian in Beirut. In this regard, they indicated that the presidential file in Lebanon will be a main item in a meeting held by the Quintet at the level of foreign ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Based on what will result from this initiative in Beirut, they will determine their next steps. If it successfully achieves the desired goal, it will lead the committee to praise positivity and push for greater positive measures, confirming a full readiness for direct partnership in what could expedite Lebanon's exit from its crisis. However, if it falters, the committee will move towards completely withdrawing its hand from the Lebanese file, holding the obstructing parties responsible for the decisive and swift measures that will be implemented against them.
