Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi keeps his eyes on the presidency, clearly showing concern for the nation. He believes that the collapse of institutional frameworks will affect all components and will not be limited to the Christian component. According to the Maronite Patriarchate, the first and fundamental step to address the collapse is the election of a reformist president who will restore the state’s presence, dignity, and sovereignty. The sequence of institutional disintegration continues, and any state lacking effective institutions is at risk of falling. The greatest fear is the occurrence of a void in military leadership. The concern is not just about who will lead the army but also about the military institution's continued fulfillment of its duties. In a few months, the term of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun will end, and without a positive development leading to the election of a president, the danger will be imminent.
From all the looming threats to the homeland, Bkerke reportedly granted a green light, according to the "Nidaa al-Watan" newspaper, for political leaders to act and not leave the army leadership facing a void. Several scenarios are being presented, primarily the extension of General Aoun's term if a president is not elected. These scenarios include the possibility of delaying his retirement by a decision from the Minister of Defense or the Cabinet, or through the approval of a law by the Parliament allowing the extension for the army commander. Bkerke does not reject the extension option if it is the most suitable solution, especially since the army commander has demonstrated skill in leading the army throughout the crisis and enjoys respect both domestically and internationally. Currently, the country is in an exceptional phase and cannot tolerate any upheaval in the largest institution that remains "standing on its feet."
In Bkerke, there is fear of what lies ahead if the presidential election crisis is not resolved. Financial and economic collapses are expanding, while electing a president is seen as the key to solving all crises. At that point, a new governor for the Central Bank will be appointed, along with a Director General for General Security and a new Army Commander, filling all vacancies in state institutions and beginning the reform process. While the Gaza War has entered as a security factor that cannot be overlooked, Bkerke is concerned about a worse scenario aimed at dismantling the entire structure of the state, destroying demographics, and controlling geography. The Patriarchate is aware of the army's current role in confronting the new wave of Syrian displacement; if a void occurs in the military institution and the situation collapses, the borders would become porous, and tens of thousands of Syrian refugees would flow in without any deterrent.
The worst case scenario involves the Syrian infiltration within Lebanon, as daily reports come in about the army conducting raids that result in the arrest of Syrian gangs, arms dealers, and armed individuals. If the security barriers fall, we may witness a scenario worse than the Palestinian influx, with Syrian refugees infiltrating all towns and spreading throughout the country without any oversight.
Bkerke's concerns regarding the leadership of the army are not solely based on sectarian or existential fears for a Christian position but arise from a broader concern for the entity itself. The refugee crisis affects all segments of the Lebanese people, and there is a unified Lebanese stance calling for a solution. However, government action has been underwhelming, limited to some communications and statements, with no serious ground developments.
Bkerke has stated that there should be no void in the military institution, and political leaders, if they are truly concerned about the country, must find the necessary legal solutions. The Patriarchate still bets on resolving the presidential vacancy crisis before General Joseph Aoun’s term ends. In the coming weeks, the Maronite Patriarch will have a strong voice regarding the overall political situation and the presidential vacancy. These positions will intensify if he senses a plot to empty the leadership of the army; Bkerke will not remain silent because it knows that we have reached a red line that cannot be crossed. If any upheaval occurs in the military institution, the plan to destroy the nation will be advancing along its path.
