Concerns are rising in Jordan that drought may consume remaining green spaces and that desertification may spread due to rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Desert lands constitute 80% of the country's total area, which is approximately 89,000 square kilometers. With the worsening effects of climate change, Jordan is striving to combat desertification through international agreements, alliances, and initiatives launched over the past years.
According to the 2023 Fourth National Climate Change Report, the western parts of the kingdom are expected to experience more frequent droughts, with rainfall decreasing by 15.8% to 47%, contrasted with an increase in rainfall of 19% in the southern region of the kingdom. Omar Al-Shoushan, head of the Jordanian Environmental Associations Union, stated to Reuters that one of the significant findings from the report issued by the Ministry of Environment and the United Nations Development Programme is that there is a high likelihood that "the kingdom will experience increased heat waves by 120%, alongside a rise in drought, particularly in the northern regions, by 50%."
Al-Shoushan added that changing rainfall patterns and rates will contribute to a "shortage of drinking water, and an increase in waterborne diseases such as typhoid and malaria, especially in the southern part of the kingdom." He pointed to the impact of refugee crises and their direct correlation with weakening the kingdom's capacity to respond to the effects of climate change, particularly in the critical sectors of water, agriculture, and energy, which are central to the food security system. According to estimates from the Higher Population Council, Jordan hosts 3.7 million refugees, the majority of whom are Palestinians, Syrians, and Iraqis, in a total population of about 11 million.
Al-Shoushan called on the government to expedite the implementation of the national water conveyance project from the Gulf of Aqaba, given the expected increase in demand due to the expansion of drought and scarcity of water resources and changing rainfall patterns. He emphasized the role of the international community and donors in supporting the government's efforts to implement sustainable development projects, notably in water infrastructure, renewable energy, and sustainable transportation. According to World Bank estimates, the kingdom requires approximately $9.5 billion to address climate change issues.
Regarding water scarcity, the World Bank reports that Jordan, considered one of the most water-scarce countries in the world, is facing a severe water crisis that undermines economic and human development. The bank estimates that annual per capita availability of water resources is 97 cubic meters, which is significantly below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per person annually. The bank further states in a report from June that "climate change, alongside population growth, is expected to cause an additional 30% reduction in average per capita available water resources by 2040."
Bilal Al-Shuqairin, the director of the Climate Change Directorate at Jordan's Ministry of Environment, indicated that climate models suggest that the climate in Jordan will become warmer with expectations of decreased rainfall rates and changes in patterns, as well as increases in the duration and intensity of heat waves and droughts. Al-Shuqairin told Reuters that "all of this is likely to impact primarily the water and agriculture sectors and other developmental areas, especially the health sector," with increased demand for irrigation water and a projected overall decrease in agricultural productivity by 20% over the next four years.
He added that the Ministry of Water has launched a national drought policy in the water sector, while the Ministry of Environment has prepared a national climate change adaptation plan and updated the national climate change policy up to the year 2050. Al-Shuqairin mentioned that the Ministry of Environment is currently supporting various climate-smart agricultural projects and rainwater harvesting initiatives in collaboration with international developmental organizations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United Nations Development Programme.
Raya Taher, director of the Climate Justice Project at Oxfam in Jordan, stated that there is an urgent need to use drought-resistant plant species to enhance resilience against climate change impacts such as declining rainfall. She added that smart and sustainable agricultural practices must be promoted, including the selection of sustainable, high-yield crops that can withstand environmental changes, as well as ensuring more inclusive management of the ecosystem and society in the agriculture sector to boost adaptability to climate change. She noted that in Jordan, an example of this is found in the South Shuna region, where a "Desert Greening Project" is being implemented, establishing a complete site for sustainable agriculture in an area severely impacted by rising temperatures and declining rainfall, creating a holistic ecosystem connecting water conservation, organic farming, and sustainable living.
