Following the conclusion of the extension file for Army Commander General Joseph Aoun and the partial agreement scene in the Parliament through securing a quorum for the legislative session, political forces are relying on the hope that the atmosphere from this session will influence the presidential election process, even if the scenario of delaying his retirement is different from any other scenario. So far, there are no real indicators regarding the presidential elections, and any new movement in this domain will not happen anytime soon. The current phase is one of waiting, even as the country enters the festive seasons. Developments in the South remain a priority for follow-up, and what is anticipated in the new year remains unknown, particularly as communication channels have opened, and there is French effort concerning the presidency and the South, the outcome of which is not clear whether it will succeed or not.
In recent times, the presidential election has seen a decline in discussion and detail, but today some are calling for it to be made a key agenda item for the upcoming days. The parties have not yet laid out plans, as the facts regarding the balance of power remain unchanged. What has emerged regarding the extension does not necessarily constitute a factor that can be built upon for the presidency unless one party decides to play the role of the decisive factor and change course, which depends on specific changing data. So, is there a date set to move the presidential file? Does the Free Patriotic Movement intend to retaliate against the opposition team that supported the position of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri regarding the extension of the Army Commander?
Current discussions in external circles focus on the situation in Gaza and its implications, alongside what may arise on the Southern front, especially if any decision regarding escalation is made. According to information, the quintet committee still entrusts the coordination task in the presidential file to Qatari efforts, coupled with French endeavors.
In this context, informed political sources told “Al-Liwaa” that re-endorsing the third presidential choice is the focus of communications that will take shape in the new year after the situation along the borders clarifies. This means that there will be a period that may pass before extensive consultations regarding new candidates commence and how the political forces in Lebanon will review their presidential options and whether they are ready to seriously change their directions or move to a decisive phase. They indicate that even now, the name of the head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, remains a key option for the resistance forces. As for whether the Free Patriotic Movement is on the verge of adopting Frangieh after feeling besieged by other forces, this matter is still undecided, and no indications have emerged from the Orange movement suggesting that it is moving toward such a decision soon. It is recognized that communication between the head of the movement, MP Gebran Bassil, and former MP Frangieh may resume at any moment following their recent meeting. Meetings between both parties are ongoing without impediments in this context, unless the Marada Movement’s support for the Army Commander has contributed to restraining any thoughts from the movement to support Frangieh, while simultaneously indicating that it coordinates its decision with the Party.
As for moving the file, could that happen right after the holiday break? Here, the same sources express their belief that the matter is dependent on local and external movements. Internally, there is no preparation for any initiatives other than calling for a session to elect the president, which relies on the Speaker of the Parliament who confirmed that electing a president is his main concern. There may be a session in the new year, but there is no date set again for this; Speaker Berri knows well when that time is right, and just as he did with the extension file, his presidential bunny can be readily brought forth. It is noted that the dialogue about the presidency has not been confirmed to be activated on the basis that it is the entry point, but new proposals may arise, and he may come up with new ideas, which will be shared with former MP Walid Jumblatt.
As for the name of the acting general director of General Security, Major General Elias Bissari, which is rumored to be a Qatari candidate, data suggests that his name is being discussed substantively among several forces without any veto against him. However, an indication must be awaited to avoid "burning" him, while the name of the Army Commander is always under consideration.
Regarding whether the visit of the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to Beirut in the new year carries new information, sources doubt that as the priority remains on what is happening in Gaza as well as implementing Resolution 1701. He may not bring any new proposals, and his repeated trips to Lebanon aim at possibly creating a foundation to discuss the presidential file and urging the parties to assume responsibility in this regard and expedite the election of the President.
The current year concludes its last chapters in Lebanon without any noteworthy achievements, especially concerning the presidency. Will the new year face the same fate, or will political divisions recede, leading to a unification on this file? It is a question that is difficult to answer in the foreseeable future.
